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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (83876)	3/22/2001 2:39:28 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<stocks can't possibly go any lower than they are right now!>> Speaking of going lower, I see the Nikkei is back to doing what it does best: finance.yahoo.com^N225&d=1d New 15 month low on the Hang Seng as well... finance.yahoo.com^HSI&d=2y Going down?<G>

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (83876)	3/22/2001 2:50:00 AM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 436258

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.INDU) Breaks Below a Regression Channel 3/21/2001 1:34:43 PM I want to start with a disclaimer - I am short several of the components that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.INDU). And keep in mind that I am a short-term trader and my positions change fairly frequently… The INDU has broken below the lower rail of a channel that began in 1994. It is important to note that this is a monthly chart and we have not had a monthly close below this level yet. As such, I would expect some volatility and a possible retest of this lower rail but I do believe that there is some serious downside potential here. To get a feel for what the stocks that make up the index have been doing, I created a couple of tables that list the returns of the components over two time frames (based on the close of 3/20). One table shows the longer-term returns (since February 2000), and the other shows the shorter-term returns (since December 2000). I use tables like this to get a feel for what are the strongest and weakest stocks in the index. On the longer-term table notice that AT&T (T) and Intel (INTC) are at the bottom of the list. On the shorter-term table, however, T hits the top spot, while INTC is near the bottom again. This shows that the long-term and short-term performance of INTC has been weak, while T has bounced off its lows. Right now I am focusing on companies that had been holding up, but are now beginning to roll over and break support levels. This involves the risk that you are shorting leading stocks and if you are wrong the snapback rallies can kill you. I believe that this move is going to take some time to ultimately play out, so I will keep you updated… FWIW- I have been reading Schaeffers daily for some time now, so them admiting they're short the DOW doesn't bother me. If anything, from reading their column I believe they are ahead of the curve. So I'm going to position myself accordingly. -vbg- Here's the track record: My market timing record over the years has been pretty solid. As documented by Timer Digest, I called the exact market top in August 1987 and then turned bullish the day after the October 1987 crash. And I screamed in late 1990, in late 1994, and again in late 1998 about "historic buying opportunities." I missed a few tops along the way, but I was in tune with the bull market of the 1990s, the sheer power of which ultimately forgave those who missed intermediate tops but was brutal with those who remained steadfastly bearish. The top I most regret missing was that of the Nasdaq (COMP – 2308.5) in March 2000, though I did forecast the ultimate move to 5000 that was not on many radar screens. And I did turn negative on the Nasdaq in this space in October 2000 when it was in the 3300-3500 zone ahead of an additional 33-percent decline. schaeffersresearch.com