Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2211)	3/22/2001 11:00:53 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Agree oil may go below $20 for a short time, but most of what is going on in the market is sheer panic lately. According to Forbes announced layoffs by corporations this year is a mere 221K people, and spread over locations around the world. Hardly a number to be concerned about. forbes.com Also, we now import much more of the manufactured goods we use than we did in the past. Since we still consume over 1/4 of the world's oil, that suggests much of it is no longer as manufacturing related as it once was. Where does it go, and is the demand for it related to a slowdown? Supplies of both oil and gasoline are below where they were a year ago, when everyone was screaming about the dangerously low levels. HO stocks are up, but only because we have been importing it like crazy for the last 6 months. There are also the oil companies who have to return all that oil to the SPR this summer. I guess that I am not seeing the real recession signals many are shouting about. I believe the implementation of Reg FD is responsible for most of the terror, because everyone is now aware of the news that used to be given only to the analysts. The market mania has simply changed from the upside to the downside, as have the players. two years ago the bulls were saying the bears were idiots and now the bears are saying the bulls are idiots. There may well be some truth to both side's claims. When the DRAM shortage disappears in a few weeks, it will be interesting to see how many bears can fit through the exit doors at once. The one reality that concerns me is the coming power blackouts in California. Those will be real, with real consequences for companies.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2211)	3/22/2001 11:03:46 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Rotation back into techs Yesterday was the first day I saw it happening...I see it again today. Now that the Dow is no longer viewed as a "safe" haven, and neither is oil, we're seeing the techs outperform the Dow on a relative basis as $$ flows from the Dow back into seemingly "cheap" techs. We should see this trend continue over the next couple weeks and it'll help stablize techs and might...might limit their downside in what could be a very ugly period. It also helps that the inventory correction in PC's started much sooner than the rest of the downturn. From what I hear the bulk of the inventory may be worked off. Not sure I believe that, but the market seems to. However, I still think all three indices have further to fall though and I wouldn't be going long anything at least until the end of the month where we start to get into the possibility of an inter-meeting rate cut.