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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (2519)	3/22/2001 7:55:45 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I watched this unfold the other day. It was a birthday party. Little kids. Picture twenty or so happy tykes running 'round and 'round and 'round. Music playing, cake on faces (and clothers and hands and floor and...), look at the glee in their eyes. One kid barely able to walk but imitating her older brother and having a blast. It is indeed a pleasant sight. Then the music stops. There's a noticeable delay before they even figure it out. Then a scramble. The older ones run right to the chairs. That little one doesn't understand the game at all... she doesn't even get it as she's led away from the game. Gradually, big to little it seems everyone got into a chair and the grins... they were priceless. The music starts again. All of the kids get up and run some more. A chair is taken away. Laughter and giggles and goofing around. And then a scramble as the music stops. One by one kids exit the game. Unhappy in various degrees. One kid in tears. Another with a shrug asks when the next game starts. And a spectrum of ranges in between. But it really started to get serious when there were only 5 kids and 4 chairs. In fact, the kid that just exited the game was knocked to the floor by an older kid, playing for keeps. No joy. Total concentration. The rounds are faster now. The guy running the game is playing with the kids. He knows it doesn't matter how long he keeps the music on. He played with the volume just to spook the kids. Easily spooked. There's almost no delay between when the music stops and kids on chairs either. And on the sidelines the kids were talking about strategy and how to play well next time and why it was the fault of someone else they didn't get a chair. And watching the action. At the end, two kids staring in each others' eyes, both with hands on the one chair circling it like wrestlers. You know the outcome. Every game ends the same. Just the players change. That's the stock market. Only it's cash, not chairs. It's adults, not kids. One rule is different though. In the kid's version, it's cheating to sit on a chair while the music is playing. FWIW. John

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (2519)	3/22/2001 10:38:42 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

agreed...sox need to be cut in half for starters...right now it seems to be a combination of denial dumb money and good olde jam jobbing that is pushing the sox. i don't know if i've told you before but my calls on the indexes are rather bearish...I think dow 3500, s&p 350 and nasdaq 650 could be since in the coming years. it all depends on greenspan though...he can float things for awhile with massive rate cuts...if we go the way of japan and get rates done to 1% or less in a hurry who knows? Nasdaq could bottom at 1100 and the dow and s&p may only get cut in half from here...5500 on dow seem like a give to me... anyhow...happy trading... bambs btw...i don't proof read my posts...sorry..i have a 11 month old here at home...i don't have time to check for spelling and what not