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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2286)	3/22/2001 7:00:59 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottried, ty for the semi info. Very useful for someone who hasn't followed the sector closely the last couple years. As far as I can tell the semi's in the past two cycles have bottomed pretty much at the same time as the btb ratio and may even lag it by 1-3 months. Assuming a btb of .65 to .55 for a lasting bottom we're probably at least 3-6 months off and maybe longer if we get a global slowdown. For a global slowdown assume a btb of .55 or less and .65 if no global slowdown. long term btb ratio geocities.com amat chart quote.yahoo.com lsi chart quote.yahoo.com I don't know if it'll hold true this time, but that would put the lows in most likely sometime this fall which corresponds with my Nasdaq lows scenario. We can run st, but again we can't run far before we become pretty overvalued. I'm going to stick to my guess of 25-30 for a bottom, but I'll probably start buying again when AMAT hits 35 or less. If we were truely that close to a bottom then there would be no way insider selling would still be this UGLY. (lowest level in 5 years!!!) biz.yahoo.com This ain't no ordinary correction. I'll be out of ACTM pretty quick on any good bounce. Still like my gold over a multi-year scenario.