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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44367)	3/22/2001 8:30:03 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"what other leading indicators do you consider more meaningful?" End-user demand, e.g., computer sales, cell phone sales, etc.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44367)	3/23/2001 1:32:51 AM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

RE: "Are you suggesting that d-ram inventory levels are not a significant leading indicator of chip equipment sales? " Sam, That's a fair question. I think it's safe to say that the general semi slide was the result of a combination of factors: inventory build, capacity ramp and changing demand. The burn off of excess inventory levels was inevitable. It will continue in the weeks and months to come. I believe we'll see it first in the PC sector, followed by the netcom sector. This should come as no surprise. If one believes that the burn off is the result of a positive change in the trend of demand, then the Micron announcement would be meaningful. This does not appear to me to be the case here. Comments like what we heard from Intel today provide supporting evidence that the demand trend has not improved. As a result, I suspect Micron's comments are likely to be more meaningful to Micron, than others in the sector. I think it's also important to point out that Micron said they will be reducing capex by $300 million in the current year, and even that number is subject to additional revision. The bottom line is that Micron reported an inventory burn off and a capex reduction at the same time. So, you tell me if there's a solid correlation between DRAM inventories and chip equipment sales. AdvocateDevil