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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Levine who wrote (44370)	3/22/2001 9:11:29 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 70976

B/B at .77 may be in line with lowered expectations, perhaps, but semiconductor equipment bookings have declined by 30% since December, and are still falling, while semi equip stock prices are up 30%. This anomoly is stretched almost to the breaking point IMO.

To: Fred Levine who wrote (44370)	3/23/2001 12:21:28 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I think the market was anticipating a "rate of change, change" I'd like to see Gottfried's chart of the latest B2B but the shipments actually went up so the 2nd derivative switches sign, correct? THIS is probably a signal to the hot money. From the peak at $115, didn't the prices start to fall when the RATE OF CHANGE in the bookings AND Book-to-bill, started to fall off? As long as they were accelerating these numbers, momentum people were buying. I remember that as soon as the rate of increase started to show signs of slowing, the hot money started to leave much to our protestations of why THAT was silly as bookings were STILL going up as were shipments. WE WERE WRONG! Hot money, left then others followed.. then we started downhill... Perhaps if you stand on your head you would see that shorts will now cover with this news as the odds are more against them as the rate of change has turned in favor of the bulls? IF this keeps up, then we continue to go higher... Of course, news back in favor of bears could bring the shorts back. Otherwise, shorts are replaced with new longs as they follow our lead as bulls. Anyway, I still stand on my thoughts that the bottom was put in back in December and the market predicted this first rate change 3 months in advance. Kirk (sure was nice to get good news for a change) out