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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44372)	3/22/2001 11:00:57 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Chip average selling price (ASP) is the best leading indicator of equipment sales that I'm aware of. ASP growth typically leads equipment sales by about a quarter. Unfortunately, the data is not that easy to get. ASP represents the combined effects of end-user demand and chip supplier inventory, either of which by itself is inadequate information. For example, end-user demand for memory broke all records in 1996, but the DRAM makers weren't making any money at those prices. ASPs stayed relatively flat during 2000, from which wiser heads than mine might have concluded that an inventory overhang was building. Katherine