Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (50488)	3/23/2001 12:07:33 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 94695

Bob, There is no sense in engaging in conversation with gooney birds. Trying to look at an average PE in the NAZ is a futile exercise. In fact, most averages just represent the best of the worst and the worst of the best. The birds will come to realize that their gold paper is just paper. It will be subjected to all the market forces that affect paper. One only need look at the 1998 charts for confirmation. Clearly, we are in a violent down trend channel, but this too shall pass. In the meantime, buy at the bottom of the channel and sell at the top. It is interesting that the clear visualization of earnings by companies a year ago certainly gives investors no current sense of comfort. The invisability is a fluke of SEC Reg FD and when companies get some protection from the lawyers ready to pounce, the invisability will end. BK Bill would be proud since he got me into this TA stuff. Last night I called the short term bottom on OEX at ~550. Missed it by half a point, but I'm trying to get better. <gg> Berney

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (50488)	3/23/2001 1:19:01 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

<There is absolutely no basis for arguing that a 15 PE is justified based on a 15% growth rate.> I was being generous. Insofar as I expect earnings to turn negative for the NDX over the next year, I think it can easily fall under 1000. Again, you fail to see that there is no earnings visibility moving forward. This is why the NDX has been in rapid descent. The NDX is nothing other than a cyclical growth index. It should be bought and held at the beginning of a new upbeat economic cycle and sold short and held as earnings peak and assume their descent. What makes you naively think that this earnings recession has hit bottom yet? Plenty of high tech companies have clearly stated that they have absolutely no idea when the economy will turn around, such as AMAT and HWP. Moreover, I perceive the situation as quite ominous here. There have only been 2 periods in history when a central bank has lowered rates this much and the stock market has tanked as a result. Japan in the early 90's and the US in the Great Depression. The US consumer is completely taped out having suffered humungus losses in the stock market over the past year and is still carrying a tremendous amount of debt. The vast majority of Americans cannot afford to buy anything outside of basic necessities. The Bush Tax cut may help somewhat in this regard; but that won't come into consideration till the middle of 2002 at the earliest. As for the gold miners, they do extremely well in periods of deflation where their input costs are lowered sharply. Profit margins explode as a consequence. Many of these gold mining stocks have become quite lean and mean and their earnings last quarter showed surprises to the upside in spite of the low POG. The rise in the shares have been the result of an improved bottom line and not the result of any fear mongering by Bears or "Gold Bugs." The "superficial cash flow argument" was meant to be a reference to what I often heard from Bulls during the first quarter of 2000, where they argued that constant mutual fund inflows and 401K installments would prevent the stock market from ever experiencing a bear market again.