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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (2537)	3/23/2001 12:13:47 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 74559

west, I agree and committed some money today. As I was driving to my lake house last nite I did some heavy thinking about what I had been seeing the last few days. Here is what I sent to a private list I belong to last nite and I acted accordingly: "Date: Thu Mar 22, 2001 3:26am Subject: License to steal A number of years ago when Brooke and I first met she asked me to give my analysis of a stock(TA of course). After writing her a 2 page analysis her comment was "I have to wonder how you ever manage to make a decision." :-) Well here goes another one and when I get through I may be unsubscribed from this list. While I have not had time to closely watch the action I have made a couple of observations. Now before anyone can buy into what I am about to say one has to believe in conspiracies (I love consiracies) and the fact that we play on an uneven field run by crooks who will do everything in their power to deceive us. As we know the money has been running to the safe haven stocks with drugs(LLY, JNJ, etc) being the primary safe haven, along with oil, banks/financial, and the dividend old economy stocks (AA, DD, IP, etc). I saw them topping the other day but did not have time to play with them and I see the sell off in starting with a vengence. Now looking at the naz stocks I see them trade and trade and trade without moving...then move up fast and come back to rest at the lower part of the range(which is very very narrow). These stocks are forming a long drawn out bottom(maybe a false one but I don't know yet). Now here is what I am thinking....I am beginning to believe we are seeing accumulation of the techs(the better ones) and the money is coming out of the safe haven stocks to provide the cash to do this. This accumulation (if I am right) could go on for a while without these stocks moving much either direction until they have all their bets placed. Now the other side of this theory could be that the safe haven stocks have just given up the ghost along with the naz stocks and this is just distribution without accumulation in any sectors. So as you can tell I don't know but I SUSPECT that it may be time to start buying some of these techs. OK, now you all can put the straight jacket on me. Monty" Now I do not think this is a bottom because I think too much damage has been done. Monty

To: westpacific who wrote (2537)	3/23/2001 4:13:35 PM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 74559

Nailed IT!! Smelled the rally, covered all shorts Thursday morning. Rally will continue for a few more days, time to set out shorts again into rally and scalp some longs. Market is in a basing pattern so trade with caution, do not get carried away short nor long till the trend is more established. And of course always trade the chart. Still seeing plenty of fund selling, tax selling so rally will not be too explosive. Need to see how Barrons spins all of this. Remember average PE in NAS is still 96 so overall trend for next 3 months is DOWN - but also much of this fluff is in the negative EPS stocks that will get washed out with time - so this number is a little one sided. West