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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44378)	3/23/2001 12:07:10 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

In the first Q of the AMAT Analyst Meeting Q&A, Joe Bronson talked about 300mm revenues: Some of his comments. We know what 300mm revenues will be for the whole year. We've got a plant in Austin that's fully booked. +++++++++++++ Seems to me that 300mm pilots and capacity are not being cut back to any significant degree. Ian.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44378)	3/23/2001 9:20:03 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

The SEMI chart takes a different view of the data from the chart I'm looking at. Same data, but SEMI slices it a little differently. My source is IC Insights' industry report. Unfortunately the specific chart is not online. You might try plotting ASP change in % terms against capital spending change in % terms. You also might try using a longer time period or a rolling average to damp out some of the statistical fluctuations in ASP and get a more accurate comparison to the three-month average used in the equipment chart. I don't disagree with SEMI's statement that ASPs rose 12.5% from Sep. 99 to Sep. 2000. The problem was that capex rose 80+% in the same time frame. For comparison, ASP rose on the order of 15% in '92 and '93, and close to 25% in '94 and '95. The danger sign was the combination of record-breaking capex growth with relatively anemic ASP growth. Katherine PS For the record, I'm not claiming to have called the downturn. I did ask the IC Insights folks about the relatively weak ASP growth in light of reported shortages, but didn't make the connection with capex until after things had already fallen off a cliff.