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Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shaw who wrote (1496)	3/23/2001 1:56:10 AM
From: Shack	Respond to of 5144

I can't quite figure out the last ten years economic growth with the absence of any inflation either, so why I can't figure out this recent action is not surprising I'm no economist but from what I understand, the answer lies in the massive US trade deficit. The US has essentially been importing foreign deflation rather than superheating from within. The trade deficit numbers bear this theory out. Thats what makes this slowdown even more unique as it (and Cush will love me for this) is not a result of high interest rates which usually prevail at the end of booms designed to kill inflation which tends to appear with most economic bull cycles. Rates never got that high. This slowdown is coming from fundamental demand problems. PS: You see Bloch on CNBC tonight?? He talked about chart similarities from your Sept/Oct '98 period to now. You seeing anything in the charts that look similar??? Saw him and no there is nothing similar in the charts. Indeed, we have yet to even have a single bottom signal.

To: Shaw who wrote (1496)	3/23/2001 10:07:29 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5144

All right Shaw, I am not a big believer in this rally but I needed a long in case I was wrong and I chose TSX. Hows the trading look to you?

To: Shaw who wrote (1496)	3/23/2001 10:42:56 AM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5144

Hi Guys, Strange for sure with the US$ and gold. I think it's fear at work and a reflection of the split in what people currently believe to be a safe haven. As a store of value, gold has traditionally been the hiding place; this has been replaced to some extent in the last few years with the greenback. People say it's confidence in Greenie and the FED; I'm more inclined to believe in the political and economic stability (even if not stock market stability). I agree completely with Shack's comments on imported deflation. Don't sell yourself short on the economic front Shack [:>) - you know a lot more than you let on (and I think you know that as well). I think where I will differ with Shack is that I believe this can and will continue. If global demand can be stimulated, which lowered global interest rates may achieve, then America can produce itself out of its debt hole, improving its trade surplus in the process. Technology and knowledge based transfers are the main exports that will lead the way, imo. Rob NIKKEI WATCH: -still propping up Nikkei NIKKEI 225 INDEX (NKY) 13214.54 360.57 2.81% 1:00 Bet you it makes and holds 14K by 3/31!