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To: Knight who wrote (9371)	3/23/2001 12:18:12 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Knight, just for the record, JMD did NOT write all or any portion of the article or commentary you attributed to him, er, me. Furthermore, JMD, or I, agree that the Salon article is off base in many respects. The Salon author predicts that the Bush administration will drive investment capital away from the technology sector to the inefficient, smokestack, Old Economy sector with dire consequences for future economic growth. If you will re-read my post, you will see that I argued that we (the NASDAQ by proxy) are in a world of hurt precisely because we misallocated investment capital by massively overinvesting in tech, and starving "other sectors". Hello bubble, which has now gone 'pop' as bubbles always do. Anyone who has the privilege of commuting into or out of Silicon Valley, as I do, has the joy of observing the consequences of misallocation. We have Cisco routers coming out of our ears, but nary a drivable freeway or an affordable house to be had. Miles of Porsche Boxsters and shiny Beemers stacked all in a row, averaging 20 MPH (on a good day) while burning increasingly expensive gas is hardly the appropriate backdrop for ushering in the New Era of bandwidth abundance. And these are other, equally egregious examples, of a grossly distorted economy. We will recover, and tech will still be the driver, and maybe even the most important driver. But capital excesses are one helluva lot tougher to correct than 'mere' inventory excesses. Translation: those expecting a 'V' shaped recovery for the New Economy are very likely to be gravely disappointed, IMO. Think several years, not several months. Not a Japan, but not a 1998. kind regards, mike doyle

To: Knight who wrote (9371)	3/23/2001 5:31:49 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Knight, presidential administrations define and shape eras. I think that the ebullient tone set by Clinton helped fuel the bubble, and that the conservative tone set by Bush has helped deflate it. I'm not making a value judgement here, just an observation. This change in style resonates with the graying of the baby boomers, who are now suddenly facing the prospect of having to postpone their anticipated retirement by a decade or two. I'm still trying to figure out the investment implications. My hunch is that it will once again become fashionable to invest in stocks that actually pay dividends. What do you think of that prediction?