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To: AllansAlias who wrote (34998)	3/23/2001 11:22:59 AM
From: jambo-bwana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Excellent post and a useful bit of history For my part, I am working on the assumption that this is a correction of the excesses that we saw during the bull market. Even if we have a decent rally off the recent lows that would take us up to the 2400-2600 level, it would surprise me if we did not at the least test the recent lows and more than likely break it. We have not seen the type of sentiment that one usually associates with major bottoms. I personally don't share the views expressed by some that see a 1929 analogy; yes, the parabolic rise is somewhat similar but some of the actions that aggravated the problem then just do not exist at this point. I don't know if you track information such as insider buying, member/specialist shorting, mutual fund cash positions, etc because major bottoms have been associated with systemic insider buying and specialist/member shorting becomes almost non-existent and cash positions reach abnormally high levels. These have been strong indicators of a market bottom in the past and in conjunction with sentiment measures can be great tools. They are not a great timing device in predicting the precise bottom but offer some fairly reliable guidance. In 73-74, insider buying reached a crescendo which continued for several months before we finally bottomed though usually that phase does not last as long. Cash levels also reached extraordinary levels in that bear market. All of the above are useful indicators in identifying market tops as well - though insider selling is not as valid. This the sort of information that I would look at together with overall basing patterns before I would make a major new commitment to the market on the long side. I could see a scenario where we have a strong summer rally before we do the usual autumn swoon which could for the basis for a bottom.