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To: AllansAlias who wrote (84581)	3/23/2001 10:11:19 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, March 22nd. (check out the comp projection...wow... and thanks for the bear rally thoughts) Anytime the market is as oversold as it has been for the past few days on the basis of the 10 day Trading Index, we have to be prepared for the possibility of a dramatic turnaround from a bottom of some importance. Did that happen in the last hour of trading today? Probably not. The reason we argue against that having happened is because of our price projections which insist there will be no bottom of potential importance until the Dow Jones industrial average reaches at least the 8854 level and the S&P 500 cash index reaches the 1,067.37 level. Be aware, however, that the low on the S&P 500 cash index today was 1,081.19. That is very close to our minimum downside expectation. What argues against a bottom of importance having been seen is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average low for the day was 9,106.50, a full 2 1/2% away from the minimum downside expectation for that average. There is always the possibility, of course, that the market will rally from these levels for several days or even a few weeks before declining once again to the area of the projected lows. With the 10 day Trading Index being in historically oversold territory, however, the odds favor a bottom of importance being no more than another 10 to 15 trading days away. There is, of course, also the possibility that the market will rally for several months before turning down to its final projection levels. After all, the projections we have given you are nominal 4 year projections. Ultimately, we also have to factor in the amazing projection for the Nasdaq Composite calling for a minimum downside expectation of 252.50. We explained that projection on the front page of our last newsletter. It is currently our feeling that if that projection is going to be met, it will not occur until much later this year or possibly even 2001 or 2002 Today , the 10 day Trading Index closed at 1.66, the Open 10 at 1.29, and our own New 10 TRIN at 1.32. If we consider an oversold reading on the New 10 TRIN to be a reading greater than 1.30, today's reading is the first oversold reading since October 19th, 2000. The McClellan oscillator moved to a new low today at -230.2. That is the lowest reading since the October 1998 market low. That reading also argues that a final bottom has not been seen because it would be unusual to see a final market low occur as the McClellan oscillator is moving to a 2+ year low. Mutual fund switchers- Rydex switchers are 100% in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select switchers are 100% in Select American Gold. All mutual fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and call each market evening. Stock index futures traders -we got the signal to exit our short S&P position when the futures rallied over 42 points from their low of the day. we will assume an exit price of 1,130.50 for a profit of 123.00 S&P points on the trade. Tomorrow, sell short the June S&P on any move below 1,102.90. Place your stops at 1,117.70. There are no new projections on the XAU or bonds. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.