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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (877)	3/23/2001 5:11:55 PM
From: T Bowl	Respond to of 10065

<<Bottom - or another bear trap?>> I hate to say I'm thinking the latter... Do you follow the ECRI Weekly Leading Index? dismal.com Well, I've been watching for a while. Definition is here: dismal.com (You can get historical data at freelunch.com.) Anyway, if I look at 3Mo, 6Mo and YTY % change, then flag when all 3 turn neg, it predicts a recession very very well(since '70 which is as far back as I can find data). It flagged up last week and confirmed again today. I'm not saying it's right, just another indicator. Nervous w\ my finger on the button, todd BTW, the index is designed to be pretty timely. If I look at the "timing" of when my flag was raised, c.f. what has happened in the past, we very well could see negative GDP as early as the MarQ... question in my mind if it happens, is how many sellers out there still don't think we'll see negative growth, and how many will panic if it comes??? We'll know 27apr.