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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (3953)	3/23/2001 2:03:15 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Terry, >>>> That said- Most of the gains lost have been paper losses. Temporary millionaires are just back to being middle class again. <<<< To some degree, I agree with you but I think overall there are more losses now than gains. Maybe not a whole lot more but still more. On the way up there was alot of margin calls where I am aware that total portfolios have lost huge amounts. As for J6P - its probably within the break even point of 2-3 years ago. And then you the have the other end of the spectrum where a few bought at the bottom in i998-1999 and sold near the top, but haven't heard of too many of them. Frankly, I dont see the US economy that bad right now, but after hearing of specific economic problems growing in Asia I have to wonder how well the US economy will hold up if they also falter, and Im not just talking about JAPAN. Growing economic weaknesses in Singapore/Taiwan/Malaysia/Thailand/Korea and possibly China.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (3953)	3/23/2001 2:06:04 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>>Too bad they didn't read "The Road to Retirement City' and learn it beforehand.<< You got a big smile out of me on that one. Some of us managed to ride the wave and get out, although you can bet that as soon as I'm fully invested again the market will have another 20% to go on the downside. <ggg> I don't see a lot to like here, unfortunately, so this is a frustrating zone for me. Some leaders like AXP are tantalizingly close to my targets ($32) but not quite there, and the real leaders, like JNPR, CIEN and CHKP, are too expensive to put much to work in. Do they really deserve a forward PE of 50 in this environment? Am kicking myself for not buying more NOK when it was at 20, but that's about the only ship that's sailed on me. Still has a gap to fill around 20, so I may get another chance. >>What do you think the chances of a bad deflationary period are?<< Off the top of my head, maybe 20%. The only thing that really bothers me is that falling net worth; it's a really striking statistic that there's been nothing like it in the entire post-WWII economy. I have a recent report in PDF format that's really worth taking a look at; I'll see if I can email it to you. But you raise a great point about a lot of it being paper wealth. Just saw that there were a record $15b+ outflows last week, according to TrimTabs. Broke October's record. Not that that meant much back then.