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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (879)	3/23/2001 8:57:20 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10065

quote.yahoo.com What do I do with my expiring 13wk T-Bills? Best wishes, I2

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (879)	3/24/2001 12:05:01 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Mr. Green Jeans re: "How do you factor in the deep and swift Federal Reserve cuts into this scenario? Obviously the Fed cuts are a long term positive. It's hard to say though when this will clearly cause a sustained move in the market and the economy. Aggressive easing up to know clearly didn't bring us any V bottom but a slight unsustained pop in January. If it was a normal cycle maybe it would be more predictable but we're coming off a huge bubble and extreme valuation. It also went far beyond internet stocks. To put it crudely virtually every one of the vestal virgins Bob talked about have been violated, several multiple times and the talk remains of no visibility. A consideration in my mind is also that Fed rate cuts may work best in sparking a bull market run when the cut is taken for more exogenous circumstances as was the case in 1998 with the world financial stability was challenged but the US was never close to recession. I think Bob's long term timing model has an excellent chance of evaluating the actual real time results of the Fed cuts in terms of the economic response etc. I must note though that this screw up with the CTR may throw the timing model off as he is mixing the idea of a CTR pushing out the timing of the final bottom. At some point we will either get a CTR or Bob will have to say it isn't working and stay in with your diminished assets for moabo. Looks like we may have really started a CTR finally though Could it be that we do not see a retest of the lows?-Remember we did not see a retest of the 1987 low." I'm always suspicious when everyone says we need a retest but history seems to bear it out in most cases. The 1987 crash was mostly a market event and not an economic event as I understand it. I don't just go by Bob who says this and missed it and didn't call the bear, but people like Marty Zweig who declared it on WSW just prior to its occurrence and said this was all the portfolio insurance and other shananigans rather than any normal bear. The Fed was afraid the market crash would cause recession which never hapened. I was not that involved in the market at the time so my knowledge is mostly not first hand on that. What I noted in my post was that technicians including Ralph Bloch who I've developed respect for think me may be on the path of a 1998 type bottom which he noted included the classic retest before exploding to the upside. Marc

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (879)	3/24/2001 2:10:18 PM
From: Ken Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Remember we did not see a retest of the 1987 low. That's a rather broad statement, and so difficult to counter. If you mean "1987" the year, that's probably true. If you mean "1987" the crash, that is not correct, at least not as viewed from the S&P 500. Using closing prices, the S&P 500 closed 10/19/87 at 225 (rounding to the near $1). It then rallied 15% to close on the 21st at 258. It then fell 12% to close on the 26th at 228. It then rallied right back to 255 by Nov 2nd. It then began a slow slide back down, and made a new closing low of 224 on Dec 4. Oh what fun days those were. :-) Ken