Hi MeDroogies, I will keep this post simple to focus on the crux of what you believe, and hopefully I am not <<taken portions of my argument and made a totality from them>> to you:
<<The ONLY evidence is the savings rate, which is unbearably low>>
and what should you construct as the most probable set of outcomes within a 12 months span? Before you object, realize that we posters, especially the bullish ones, should have to apply a useful time span so that the average investor making real world decisions on where to put money now can execute, even though we posters collectively know that long term the DOW will go to 36k.
and out of say three probable outcomes/scenarios (optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, as relevant to the index mutual fund investor), assign probabilities, upsides, downsides ... you know, the expectation calculation.
To make the point even more precise, what would happen when folks collectively try to correct this low savings state of affairs? Maybe we can find some agreement here.
The above work, and yes, it is work, would need to taking into account all the rest of the problems, as opposed to your <<ONLY evidence>>, such as trade deficit, politics, weak Japan, expected 10% imploding high yields, already high debt levels, NewEc driven deflation, demographics, "selected real estate implosion" and declining confidence.
Chugs, Jay
P.S. To consolidate postings,
Message 15555899
<<has astounded me in 20 years of media sales, that when the economy is weak...companies stop spending>>
I now see what you mean in the totality ... core media spending revenue (presumably non-dotcom derived revenue is core) is up in your company, therefore the economy is still strong, therefore ORCL is not a sell, but a buy or hold, even though Larry sold, but each and every time, he did so to rebalance portfolio, whereas others (Jeff Bezos) may have sold for less noble reasons. You are very generous to the world and all its inhabitants.
All your favorite insiders certainly chose a very strategic moment to diversify; in fact they chose the same time as all the scoundrels in your construct. In normal language, it is termed "timing the market", as in "it is time to sell".
P.P.S.
Oops, another one by you ... like it.
Message 15556150
<<I own AOL, CNXT, CPQ, GE and ORCL>>
Ok.
<<As for anything else you'd like to know, I personally say up yours>>
Whatelse did I want to know? Rudeness is unbecoming, and I do not want you to personally say up mine. You are getting upset. Don't. We are simply dishing out the stuff you dished out at the stock specific threads, and if we feel uncomfortable with your postings, we then have to evaluate our beliefs, convictions, executions. So far, the evaluation says we should do exactly as we have been doing, because you are effectively not in the market, despite what you say with such conviction.
<<Your attack on me at the end of this post is unwarranted>>
When I read this I immediately went back to my post, got puzzled and returned back to this message. Now I see, you are refering to <<drivel>>. If that is interpreted as a personal attack, do not, as it was not meant to be. If interpreted as a critique on the content, yes, it is. I also refer to my own postings as "rantings", copying some nasty PMs I get, and feel secure in the knowledge that they are not interpreted by most readers as rantings. You should, similarly, feel secure in the knowledge that your postings are not drivel, if they are not. However, having said all that, if you believe that word was a personal attachk, then I sincerely apologize that I cross the line between "good fun" and "nasty intent". I am sorry, without qualifications.
<<All of your posts have been based on qualitative statements. You have yet to post anything with a real economic basis...information from housing/unemployment/inflation/interest rates. Primarily because there is little there to support your belief. Qualitative judgements are easy to make if you rely on what people say.>>
I make my qualitative judgements based on what I read about housing/unemployment/inflation/interest rates etc, and what I calculate to be acceptable valuations. I do not need to regurgitate to others equally well read the lagging symptoms when I feel I have command of leading causes.
<<Apple product. I have always been happy with the purchase and laugh at the number of times the wintellian have to reboot and lose files due to a crash>>
A prediction: at some point in the future, you will be busy using emulators or busily converting MAC files to Wintel.
<<You take things far too literally whereas I am a little looser with the language than lawyers prefer>>
With that explanation, OK. And you are right, I tend to prefer precision (I work with German clients at times), unless told to expect not. And now I have been told.
<<I am merely confused by the point>>
MeDroogies, take my word for it, with no sarcasm, I am also confused by your writing, not so much the language, but the seemingly casual (to me) answers to complicated and connected reality. We simply see a different reality.
<<I had a good deal of cash on the side>>
Thank you for disclosing that you hold 5 shares and a bunch of cash, even though you disagree with those on this thread, and of course with me, but your execution is exactly the same in tenor as ours. See, we actually do not disagree at all.
<<I've railed against the con game that was played, but not because I was hurt. I've railed against it because I resent the way a number of investment bankers and 25 year old whiz kids have found a way to siphon funds from granny into their pockets and not feel bad about it.>>
MeDroogies, you are now frightening me. I do not see where we differ in world view at all! Except that you have excluded Larry from your railing, even after he fessed up on the dotcom con that he so benefited from (which is OK) and encouraged (which is less OK), and front ran (which is not OK).
Oops, here it is, the crux ...
<<I don't see any long term deleterious effects>>
I think this is best to be left foir later judgement, and we position cautiously in the mean time in case matters do not turn out well, and we do not advise folks to "buy and hold". In other words, we advise folks to be as cautious as we ourselves are.
<<I have an IQ of 140>>
I do not know what my IQ is.
<<You are the third>>
I am sorry for having caused you distress. Ignore function is a bit radical, as all you needed to do was to stop responding to my postings directly.
Will somebody on this thread please clip and paste my message of apology to MeDroogies for having inadvertantly caused personal distress. Many apologies. Truly.
Chugs, Jay |
