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To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (17693)	3/23/2001 10:36:26 PM
From: Due Diligence	Respond to of 19297

1st friday that NASD was up since the first of the year. Next week should be very interesting. The "Final Four" should be more interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Roll, or is it BOUNCE or SLAM DUNK ????????????

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (17693)	3/24/2001 3:14:09 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19297

the one thing investors in this market should have learned by now is.....when bad news is ignored......the markets going down further..... its happened all the way down.....and its happening again right now......people with short memories will get sucked in again.....only to watch new lows be made..... this little run up here is just end of quarter tape painting by the big boys......they had to put false hope in semi stocks because with biotech tanking.....both sectors falling together would tank this market.....and that can't happen yet because they have to make end of quarter look as good as possible before the bottom falls out again.... the DOW broke a diamond pattern...target from a break like that is 7000 area......DOW fell 1700 points...yet MSFT held up.....why.....MSFT is in most mutual funds.....its being held up for this last week of the quarter...where do you think MSFT will be after mutual funds stop holding it up and dow is falling to 7000's and nasdaq to 1500...... MSFT no brainer short after this tape painting is done.....should head into the 30's..... these bottoms take time to unwind......the last few standing are MSFT...QCOM...CIEN.....JNPR.....when they finally fall.....you know the bottom is near.....and that should happen soon..... back to semi stocks.....this week a big number came out...the book to bill.....and it was totally ignored by the media.....why??? because big money was so intent on pumping up the semi's to hold this market up for end of quarter.....and talking about the book to bill number would let people see what a scam this propping up semi's really is...... and here is the clue......had the book to bill been any good...THEY WOULD HAVE USED IT AS HYPE.......BUT THEY DIDN'T.....BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T......so they ignored it!!! that should scare people.....but those unknowing will pile in more money thinking they better jump now or miss the bottom......and they will again feel much pain in the coming month... right now CSCO is the only big company telling it like it is...and they see nothing but bad times ahead.....and folks better listen......or follow the big money and get killed again..... CSCO numbers will be bad.....and they are about to break a new low and likely head to 10 bucks....... the truth about the semi's will then come out.....then you will have bio's and semi's falling at the same time...... then and only then will a bottom be put in......then we will be in the final leg down......and thats coming..... nasdaq 1500 and dow 7000's ....... YHOO will fall to 10 or under.....AMZN 5.00.....CSCO...10......MSFT....QCOM.....JNPR.....CIEN...30'S........ last year at this time......the nasdaq started its fall.....and the money shifted to the dow......and as the dow went into a trading range for the rest of the year.....the nasdaq was choppy and in a long downtrend...... this year.....now the dow starts its fall.......and money shifts to the nasdaq.......so now just the opposite happens......the nasdaq goes into a trading range.....and the dow turns choppy and heads into a downtrend..... so nasdaq will likely trade between 1500 to 2000 for the rest of the year.....and the dow will bleed down all year..... the new bull will start when the "mean" is back to normal.....right where we were before the internet bubble started......so 4 or 5 years of gains will be wiped out.....then we start over......only up slower this time around..... now for the short term.....hahn has march 29 and april 2 as big turning point days coming up...... he says a bottom is likely on those days.....then a run? just to argue with hahn and take the other side so people have something to think about..... how could that be a bottom with tax sellers coming before april 15th.....why would the market run-up till then with all that selling... the only way would be short sellers are the ones in the money and their covering will send the market up and off set real sellers in the market selling for taxes..... now on the other side.......if you look at march 29 and april 2 as a high......you would think that.....because of this..... big money painting the tape this week to make end of quarter look good......people jumping in thinking its the bottom.....so march 29 and april 2 should be highs... then after big money stops holding up the market cause the quarters done......the market starts tanking.....and the selling from tax sellers just adds to the fall........ so selling pressure should start after april 2 ...... and the only wild card left in this market is that a surprise fed rate should come in april.....but when in april??? will greenspan be nice to the little investor and give it before april 15th......thus propping up the market for tax sellers...... or will he wait till after april 15th knowing that this selling is a needed market event and he will just let it run its course and save the cut just in case the market doesn't jump back up after april 15th..... its up to each person to play this important coming few weeks the way they see it......you have two choices......believe this is the bottom and jump in now......or you believe the pain won't stop till after the 15th...... for those who believe the worst is coming up......your targets should be the stocks yet to fall and play em for shorts......you know who they are...... those who believe the bottom is in.....just keep buying long....you must like pain.....and have been buying long since 3500.....do yourself a favor...at least wait for the first stoch 50 bounce on a long term chart.....you won't miss anything..... and those undecided......you just want to sit this mess out.....you might want to track stocks heading into april 15th.....find some getting killed that last week.....and play them for a bottom entry for a after april 15th bounce back.....much like the january effect tax plays... just remember.....the nasdaq has been in a bear market for a year..... BUT!!!!!! the dow is just starting its BEAR market...... so this isn't over!!!!! its going to be a long drawn out process all this year...so save your money and play it safe...... trade smart......and cut your losers fast.....and even a small profit is good.....nobody ever went broke taking a profit..... and greed in a bear market can be fatal..... and if it plays out that the dow is just starting its bear.....and the nasdaq will be in a boring trading range....... you might want to watch the most boring of all investments.....gold...because if the opposite effect takes hold.....and opposites from the past seem to be the rule now......example...during the tech run as the nasdaq and dow ran big......gold died......so now tech and the dow die..... opposite effect.....gold gets exciting again..... is that possible?????? hugeroll!!!!!!!!!!! well.....nothing in this market will surprise me anymore......so if gold does run.....YOU KNOW ITS A BAD BEAR MARKET YEAR AHEAD......roll! so just as a safety measure......keep your eye on gold stocks......geez.....i hope it doesn't come to this.....roll! we shall see...... all this is just my humble opinion.....roll!