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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (84920)	3/23/2001 5:44:05 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>Strength in U.S. technology stocks helped the Nasdaq composite index break a seven-week losing streak Friday as traders bet an extended sell-off had taken these issues down to reasonable levels. << See SPECULATION <VBG>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (84920)	3/23/2001 6:00:03 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

guess abby doesn't read her own firm's research..... who's in charge? dailynews.yahoo.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (84920)	3/23/2001 6:00:42 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Ted David says, "Mega Bear Bill Fleckenstien is up next, is he still bearish, we'll find out." I wish they'd give Fleck half an hour and let him choose what he wants to talk about. I guess we'll know we're at a bottom then, but a token 5 minute spot on a Friday night, meaningless....

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (84920)	3/24/2001 8:43:48 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

some longwaves stuff on liquidity trappers written by mike alexander My data shows commerical paper rates of 0.75% in 1935 and 1936. Inflation in those years was about 2% implying negative real short-term interest rates. Yet unemployment stubbornly remained above 10% for the rest of the decade. My understanding is that a liquidity trap is present when low interest rates don't "work" to stimulate the economy. IMHO, a liquidity trap is simply economese for "incredibly bearish technicals". Since economists have always maintained that TA doesn't work how can they then say that a major component in causing depressions are "really UGLY charts". A seemingly endless series of major support breakdowns can degrade business confidence, or so it seems to me. Consider, all a successful businessman need do to live quite comfortably is run his business well, he doesn't have to grow it. A businessman's preference towards business growth as opposed to business maintenance will depend immensely on the market for business growth (i.e. the stock market). When stock prices are rising, he will be interested in growth and his behavior will be heavily influenced by the price of money. When they are falling he will be less interested in growth and will require lower prices of money as an inducement to invest in growth. When stock prices are cratering, he may conclude that growth has no profit potential, at least not right now. For example, executive stock options could lose their appeal in favor of cash bonuses, and management could then eschew risky investment schemes. Mike Alexander, author of Stock Cycles: Why stocks won't beat money markets over the next 20 years. net-link.net ----- Original Message ----- Paul Krugman's notion that Japan has been in a Keynesian liquidity trap has been widely trumpeted about by him, at least until after the 1998 Asia meltdown. ("The Return of Depression Economics") The usual way of putting the liquidity trap has been that it is like pushing on a string, and that low or non-existent rates do not create demand. Slight increases in the demand for money can and do push rates up, and people (markets) do not believe that rates can stay down at very low levels for very long. Thus rates tend to rise in such a way as to counter the effects of the stimulus. The Keynesian/Krugman solution is to create or administer inflation so as to counter the tendency to save at the higher rates rather than to spend or invest. The prevailing mythology, as I showed before in quotes from Antal Fekete, was/is that it was World War II that "saved" the economy of the 1930's by massive inflationary spending. As Fekete showed it was massive deficit spending throughout the 1930's which swelled the government bond market and prolonged the "flight to safety" which bled deposits out of banks. With a much smaller bond market the bond prices would have roared up quite quickly and rates would soon have dropped to levels conducive to new investment in business. As it was it took far longer, 1941 or 1942, well after the start of WW II. It wasn't a loss of confidence per se which caused the run on banks; it was the loss of deposits running into government bonds at high real yields which eroded the lending base and reserve base.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (84920)	3/25/2001 5:51:19 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I ought to start posting the lead headlines from CBS Market Watch during the day. They're particularly clueless and grasping at the straw of the moment. An early rise is typically attributed directly to some nominal good news overnight. Then it reverses and goes lower than the open. Abra cadabra, it's fears that the FOMC won't raise rates. Apparently it's a fear that magically appeared at the highs of the day. Etc. I'll keep an eye open.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (84920)	3/26/2001 12:08:38 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

hb - Message 15562374 "From financial times, SURVEY - AFRICAN MINING: Gold miner with Midas touch news.ft.com. SURVEY - AFRICAN MINING: Gold miner with Midas touch struck the right note: HARMONY GOLD by Nicol Degli Innocenti: Bernard Swanepoel, chief executive, has driven his company from the brink of closure to being the third largest gold producer in South Africa Financial Times; Mar 19, 2001 By NICOL DEGLI INNOCENTI..." "...Given his commitment to gold, Mr Swanepoel was almost embarrassed last month to have to announce that "promising" deposits of platinum and palladium had been found at the group's Kalgold operations. ..." Regards, Don