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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (44453)	3/23/2001 8:01:21 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

SEMI bookings and btb can get us in the ball park and the actual timing for trading should be done based on TA Richard Palm has studied your correlation of SEMI bookings to AMAT stock price and observed: "Looking at that chart, suppose you had taken the example of the 1996 trough, and used that information to try to figure out how to pick an entry point in 1998. Two approaches that could have been used are (a) wait for bookings to fall by 50% from their peak, or (b) wait for two consecutive months of increasing bookings. One method would have gotten you in two months early, and the other would have gotten you in two months late. Both methods would have given you the benefit of 90% of the subsequent runup in stock prices." Message 15303114 Would you care to comment on this observation and possibly suggest how BTB might also be used in conjunction with TA for determining possible entry points? Could you also please indicate how such data may have contributed to your actual experience in determining entry and exit points? TIA, Sam