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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (4029)	3/24/2001 6:44:52 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

You know, I wish we had the semi complete list of things that were going to turn the market around going all the way back to the "summer effect". We had the "election effect", the "year end effect", the "cash on the sidelines effect", the "Greenspan effect", -- there were many others. It will be interesting to see what folks say if we turn back down after this third rate cut -- the "rate cut effect" would append to a long list. Having said that, statistically, three cuts is a good bet. It is one I am not making because I believe that what we are seeing is somewhere in the same league as the 1929-1932 correction/1929-1950 bear. (BTW, here is a post from yesterday concerning the wonderful rallies during 1929-1932: siliconinvestor.com I think we'll get some modest follow-through Monday, and perhaps some of Tuesday. I can not see the wave structure allowing us to turn back down before then. The COT commercial net short is still very high for both S&P and NDX, but yes, both saw large drops (i.e. covering). One has to believe that these traders will be net long or darn close somewhere before the bottom is in and we aren't anywhere close to that. Still, I don't expect them to run for cover every time we rally and some of the rallies will be very profitable on the long side. Even though the COT report is somewhat laggard, they remain clearly net short in S&P 500, NDX, Russell, S&P 400, and Dow. Unlike some people, I do not believe we are in the so-called stage III of the bear. There is still far too much bullishness and denial for this to be so. I expect this to be resolved only by a nice long rally that fails as we turn to make new lows. The alternative to this scenario is that we have/are experiencing one of the many rather short corrections we have seen in the last 25 years. Cheers

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (4029)	3/24/2001 12:18:15 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Hi Lee: I am toying with the following idea (and have selected a few threadsters to bounce it off of....here goes): I want to test the interest in the Clown-Free/Stock Attack groups of a get-together (primarily for regulars). A kindof fun/social (and maybe a bit of market talk) thing. I live in Miami Beach (South Beach), and would be able to coordiate a lot of stuff. This would be a good place to put on such a "summit" (ie., relaxing, nice weather, sites, beach, hotels a plenty, good plane connections, etc)... I am thinking Labor Day weekend, since (A) its a holiday, so no one will miss the markets (B) Many people don't do anything that weekend. Anyway, let me know if you the idea has some merit. Pros/Cons...Interest level. Thanks John