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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zwolff who wrote (33187)	3/23/2001 10:05:27 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

zwolff "Back to the races! Now what are your price targets before/after earnings??" Glad you're back!!! Should be much more fun this year than last when market determinants, as opposed to AMD fundamentals, threw a monkey wrench into the works...Nothing, absolutely nothing intrinsic to AMD, can explain the meltdown from $48.50 last July to todays $29, and, consequently, nothing, absolutely nothing, will deter AMD in reclaiming lost ground in Y2001...AMD with its excess Dresden demand, ramping up of Dresden, and the "major league" palomino family of products (new market potential...mobile, server and workstation) waiting in the wings is a much, much strnger company than 1 year ago...Flash back 1 year: INTC PR suggesting P4 to blow AMD out of the pond, Kumar suggesting AMD is roadkill...Outcome: P4 bellyflopped and Kumar looks like roadkill...Flash forward 1 year: P4 stalled and seemingly in reverse with latest offering of 1.3 gig P4 operating at a 40% deficiency, but double the price, of a 1.33 gig Athy, but P4 promising to ramp up at a feverish pace (infinite loop out of INTC PR dep't) vs.AMD's palomino family of products destined to take over the mobile space and establish a solid presence in the server and workstation spaces....Personally, I like AMD's chances with the "major league" family of palomino products about to be introduced vs. the "AAA league" P4 some-time-in-the-future-if-ever products that may or may not be competitive with the "major league" palomino family of products... Target prices: I'm looking for AMD to consolidate in the $30 to $34 range for a (short??? market indices may be a factor) period between now and earnings on the 18th...Unlike some in our midst, I don't see unduly weak earnings by AMD on the 18th, as compared to what may be unduly weak earnings for INTC on the 17th, and, if my vibes are right, that AMD reports record revenues for Q1 and an eps of $0.40 or better, AMD could easily ascend to all-time record high of $48.50 in Q2...Think about it...INTC reports, on the 17th, $0.19 eps(I'm being very optimistic here) and a decline by 20% in revenues with a bleak forward looking guidance while AMD reports record revenues and an eps of $0.40 with forward looking prospects of 25% revenue growth...Realistically, price parity, given the foregoing, is untenable...AMD should trade at 2 to 4 times (conservatively) the price of INTC if the foregoing scenario unfolds...(My guess is the foregoing scenario will not be too far off the mark)...AMD is the most undervalued company in the marketplace, imho...At 2 times $29, it remains very much undervalued compared to relative pricing of any of its competitors!!!