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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stopforth who wrote (33191)	3/23/2001 10:10:38 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

John Stopforth: "Compared to INTC, AMD should be $60 plus!!! I'm beginning to think your estimates are too conservative :)" Say it isn't so!!! DRBES may be of some help here!!!

To: John Stopforth who wrote (33191)	3/24/2001 1:48:50 AM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

John, "Niceguy Compared to INTC, AMD should be $60 plus!!! I'm beginning to think your estimates are too conservative :)" Good to see that I am not alone! The main factor which was holding AMD down for more than half a year was the theory that AMD is a road-kill company (in spite of its actual overwhelming success). Of course, nobody wants to invest in a road-kill company, which is soon to be destroyed by the vastly superior Pentium 4 and the price war resulting from the cheap Celerons. Besides, with some strange logic, any problem which Intel had, even if it was caused by AMD's economic success, was seen as an even magnified problem for AMD. So when Intel warned, AMD fell 20%. That has been a no-win situation for many months: 1) Good news for Intel = bad news for AMD because it accelerates the (inevitable) death blow to AMD. 2) Bad news for Intel = even worse news for AMD because Intel will stop playing around and return to the serious work, which means pulling out its technological and financial supremacy and thereby destroying AMD quickly and forever. 3) Good news for AMD = the beginning of the end of AMD because it hurts Intel and thereby awakes the sleeping lion (or gorilla). 4) Bad news for AMD like Duron infrastructure problems = an outright disaster. Certain analysts were quite successful in spreading this FUD, thereby talking AMD down to a P/E of 6. Almost incredible! I think that the last days marked a turnaround. AMD is NOT seen as a road-kill company anymore. It has become obvious that the Pentium 4 is not vastly superior performance wise, just vastly more expensive. The cheap prices of the Celerons may have saved Intel's overall market share due to gains in the lowest cost area. But this desperate "price war" by the Celeron didn't affect AMD's success in the high-end consumer space where Intel is almost not present any more. So we have a big shift of AMD processors from low-end PCs to high-end PCs. And even the low-cost Celeron market is seriously threatened now with the arrival of the integrated Duron mobos. Now all the previous FUD gets blown away, revealing the naked truth: Despite its ridiculously low P/E, AMD is an overwhelmingly successful company with outstanding prospects. AMD does well even in an extraordinarily difficult economic environment (how many tech companies had to issue warnings??). Almost impossible to imagine how AMD will do when the economic situation improves. And last but not least, next year AMD will release the Hammer series and be in the 64-bit marketing heaven. With the FUD disappearing, the truth comes to light. The dawn has just begun. Peter