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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (2577)	3/23/2001 10:46:09 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi John <<Not jumping and shouting? Yes. We are similarly biased there too. When running with the lemmings no need to chirp. But must yell "excuse me, going the other way, excuse me, coming through..." when going against the tide.>> Too funny! <<Jay toys with everything and everyone. He is playful like a child...I know very well the style of his enjoyable game.>> That will be the French side of my heritage. The other game is Unreal Tournament. <<Which approach you attempted, and indeed are still attempting as of the post to which I reply ("housing prices in San Fransisco").>> Really funny and thankfully long read at prudentbear.com ... QUOTE What followed was quite a fascinating discussion of the "Productivity of the Sushi Chef." "Berry, that low-cost Chinese eatery you used to frequent was replaced by the Kamikaze Sushi Factory. The production of that shop space has jumped 10-fold, with only a few extra employees. The productivity of those workers has probably gone up 5-fold. People come in willing and able shell out $40 on platters of sushi, and these chefs just crank the stuff out. It is truly amazing how much value they add." "Forty dollars!" Barry exclaimed, "I used to try to keep dinner limited to $7 dollars at that very same location." Barry continued: "While everyone says inflation is dead and buried, don’t you think there is inflation at work here and not some miracle economy?" Darrell responded: "No, the sushi is about the same price it’s has always been. Folks just prefer and can afford the more expensive selections and order a lot more items than they used to. They also carry a great selection of premium sake that is all the rage. This is about wealth creation Berry, not inflation," his friend confidently explained. Berry wasn’t convinced, but kept his thoughts to himself. UNQUOTE <<I don't hold as much stock in eloquence as I do in relentless logic without basis in supposition. To beat the horse one more time, you could wax poetic about LE's motives and I will still point to you that not being posessed of LE's brain, your attempt to explain LE's motivation is uninformed guesswork... at best. Or in math terms again, bull$hit is the sophist equivalent of zero: multiply any fact with bull$hit and you get bull$hit. However fine you want to slice it.>> Wow ... as the ANNOUNCER on Unreal Tourney would say: Dominate! <<On Jay's manners - inviting you here and then feeding upon you... or those of other bears, caution. As I mentioned before, this is a den of bears and such is the way of the beast.>> I did give fair warning(s) about the snack food to be brought to the den from stock specific threads ... Message 15521522 Message 15518974 Message 15518736 Message 15537044 But, none the less, apologies truly on "drivel" again. I crossed the line by using that word. I can see how that would bite me had it been used to describe one of my posts by someone who invited me over to post. It is OK for the fellow bears here to feast, but not OK for the bear that invited in the snack to feast in quite the same way. Not kosher at all. Chugs, Jay

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (2577)	3/24/2001 10:18:52 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

I'm not a rough player. I never was, although I get provoked easily...probably due to an "second son" situation. My brother constantly baiting me and needing to overcome his "golden boy" image. Consequently, I learned to stop worrying about issues of who's better than who, who knows more about what, or even what other people thought about me. I learned to focus on myself and meeting the needs I considered most important: 1. providing for myself and mine 2. making sure I am well provided for in the future 3. never worrying if things don't work out just the way I like because a lost opportunity doesn't mean another won't come along. Anyway, I find most of the calls for recession, crises and collapse a little on the extreme side, much as the calls for the new economy were on the extreme side. I've been a moderate about the whole thing. I never chided the bears during the run up (unless they got overly personal and issued their dire warnings in a rude and unwarranted manner), and I especially dislike the ones who show up just to gloat as other stocks decline. Investing is a win-win game. I detested the dot-com millionaires because they didn't believe that. The ones who cashed out, I say congrats to because I'd have done the same thing. Problem is, I'd never do what they did, which was sell snake oil. ORCL is the farthest thing from snake oil. And I never claimed LE did anything there that was noble...I didn't even claim that his motives for selling were noble. I simply said that selling isn't necessarily an indicator of anything, and gave examples of what would be likely scenarios (and, based on Occam's Razor I consider to be more reasonable) for selling: primarily overweighting. When I sold my insider shares from my IPO and again when I sold most (not all) of my ORCL stock, it was due to overweighting. Truth be told, I wanted to hold ORCL for more gains, but it was too much overbalance. I couldn't bear to break a few of my rules just for greed. I'd done that once, and paid dearly for it (CNXT). I don't believe in holding to remain humble...but I do just this one stock. Really for 2 reasons, though. It's a good company and while it may not again achieve its lofty heights, I can still make money back on it, so I keep it around. All my others, I'm playing with house money (which Jay says doesn't exist). I say it does, because I'm playing with it now. My triple, fortunately for me, is real. I don't know if it was luck or good practice. But, my triple doesn't make me feel good because I have too many friends who got hammered. My anger is geared not at them for being too stubborn to take something off the table, but at the same prognosticators who now scream that recession is imminent, but only 4-6 months ago were still telling people everything was fine (there were quite a few of these). I find them abhorrent and they anger me because they feed the fear as much as they fed the frenzy. I have no delusions of grandeur, of getting rich. Nor do I necessarily want to be. If it happens, great. But I've learned one really valuable lesson over the last 6 months. That is, F. Scott Fitzgerald was right, and the rich are different. I really believe we all have equal opportunities in this life, if we are willing to make those opportunities. In the case of wealthy people, however, they are more often than not GIVEN opportunities. I know that I can never get a 10% return on a CD, yet I know several very wealthy people who do because of the size of the amounts they placed in the CD. I actually had one person (quite naively...I live in a wealthy town, and I'm sure they felt we were in the same socioeconomic realm) act surprised at my inability to gain access to certain managed fund accounts or fixed return vehicles. It isn't easy to tell your son's best friend's parent that you don't have $500k to put in an account to get started when they think everyone seems to have that kind of cash....but I am sure it was just ignorance on their part, and I don't feel bad about it...nor am I angry with them. It's just the way it is. So, have I lost money during the bubble bursting? No. Have I lost value? Sure. But I don't worry about it. As I said elsewhere, I learned that it's not worth worrying about things you can't control. I can't control the market...so I don't really worry about it alot. Right now, I'm more concerned about finishing my basement, getting my lawn set up, and preparing for my vacation to really let the market get me down...or anything anyone could post.