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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (44466)	3/24/2001 4:00:12 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, RE:In the current downturn, when chip inventories get cleared, but demand among end-users continues to decline, no one is going to be ordering any semi-equipment. I hope you don't believe this. Let's turn down the rhetoric and stick to facts. "No one is going to be ordering any semi-equipment" is something I would expect to read on a Yahoo thread - pure hyperbole. Bob

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (44466)	3/24/2001 8:03:55 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, You make a good point that as chips become ubiquitous, consumer sentiment may become the best leading indicator for semi cap equipment stock prices. I would suggest back testing AMAT monthly stock price against the consumer sentiment series at economagic.com Please note that monthly data is available starting January 1978. Prior to that the data is quarterly. You might want to convert the consumer series to year over year percent change. If the your theory is valid we should see a tighter correlation through time as we approach the present state of chip ubiquity. Would you be kind enough to check this out and let us know what you discover? I look forward to hearing how your theory holds up to the data. Sam