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To: GST who wrote (121515)3/24/2001 2:19:52 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
>> An assessment of the probability of global recession:

GST, what level of oil price would be consistent with moderate growth ?

Perhaps the hyper growth rates of 1998, 1999 were due to $12/barrel oil. And probably the current zero-growth is due to $30 oil. Considering other raw materials are cheap, what would be a neutral oil price ? It seems to me $18 would be about right. So with OPEC trying to keep the price near $25, we have some more difficult times ahead. But I am convinced that tech will lead the way to renewed growth. So I'm fully invested in tech.