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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (73223)	3/24/2001 4:32:23 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

BB, I was looking at Cien as a short candidate. Your thoughts? I rode it up on Thursday for a nice gain, but after watching Glw, Jdsu, and Nt going no where on Friday, I'm thinking fiber optics are dead near term. Cien is still priced richly and thus am considering shorting it on strength Monday. Thoughts? Steve D. Ps. I see no bear rally this week. If the move Friday indicates anything, it is there is no real strength in the techs. Only things up were the biotechs and a few qcom types which were down the day before. I think by next Friday (probably on Friday), we will be near or below our lows set this week. Thoughts? Steve D.

To: bobby beara who wrote (73223)	3/25/2001 8:39:20 AM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 99985

<<i'm unsure of the bear rally, it sure does look like we should have one - the market is extremely sold out on every indicator, but i question the strength of the market>> bobby ... I agree with you, and any rally (in my opinion) will be very short lived. Between now and mid-April or so, we face a whole bunch of incredibly bad earnings warnings for Q2FY2001. I expect many companies will dump much more than their actual bad news into those warnings in an attempt to get out in front of this thing, hoping they can get expectations as low possible, and form some kind of a bottom base line from which their stocks might rally in Q3 and Q4 - unless of course the news in Q3 and Q4 turns out to be worse than Q1 and Q2. Last week I sold short two S&P June futures contracts and covered for a good profit ... also bought four out of the money S&P June puts to catch the final (perhaps final) big collapse on the S&P, NYSE Composite and the Dow that I still expect. Ken Wilson

To: bobby beara who wrote (73223)	3/25/2001 9:00:17 AM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 99985

... also bobby, I would not be surprised that the latest rumors about Cisco Systems announcing a major lay-off might happen - perhaps very soon. (1) John Chambers has been talking publicly for weeks about how bad things are at CSCO. It seems like he has been trying to get everyone ready for more bad news. (2) Of all public companies headquartered in the U.S., I can not think of any company that has grown their profits in more of a fake, false and misleading way by acquiring other companies using pooling of interest accounting. Now that the economy is on the slide, and their stock is in the tank ... they may be really up against the wall. "Barron's" has not been attacking their accounting methods for the last year or so without having some validity to their argument. (3) If I set my stops tight enough, maybe I will short it - don't hold me to that though, that is a very high risk move. (4) I think I will post this message on the CSCO thread to see what they think. <G> What do you think bobby? Ken Wilson