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To: AllansAlias who wrote (85134)	3/24/2001 8:52:34 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

mike alexander...long waves Here is a plot of US government, corporate (the Macaulay series) and AAA bonds. csf.colorado.edu It shows pretty much the same info as Tom's chart only it's a little easier to read. In this chart you can really see the "plateau" as, well a plateau in interest rates. For the first K-cycle we see a peak in 1814, then a plateau from 1819 to 1829 and then a drop to a low in 1830. For the second K-cycle we see a peak in 1861 and a plateau from 1864 to 1873/77 and then a drop to about 1901. For the third K-cycle we see a peak in 1920/21 a plateau from about 1924 to 1931/32 and then a drop to a bottom in 1940/47. For the fourth cycle we see a peak in 1981, a plateau from 1987-1990 and then a drop to 1998? From these interest rate structures there is a similarity between 1998 (assuming this was the bottom) and 1830, 1901, 1940/47. We can compare this to price-based K-troughs in 1843 and 1897 or stock-based K-troughs in 1843, 1896, and 1949. Notice that these interest rate bottoms occurred 16, 40 and 23 years after the peaks The 1998 bottom occured 17 years after the peak. This spacing is on the short side, making this cycle most similar to the first K-cycle from an interest rate perspective, and for which the K-trough in stocks and prices was the furthest away after the interest rate bottom. Tom's interpretation of a nearby K-trough follows very naturally from this data, but it is not the only interpretation, and it ignores other indicators, such as NAIRU which argue for a much later K-trough. Mike Alexander, author of Stock Cycles: Why stocks won't beat money markets over the next 20 years. net-link.net

To: AllansAlias who wrote (85134)	3/25/2001 3:50:26 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 436258

Allan, brave and wonderful? Huh? ok DUMB too -g- But, honestly, we are coming up to the point where Luc and the bears are going to be proven absolutely right. It's only Bush, Greenspan and the "Clowns" (The guys who DONT sell) that can hold this thing together and save all our butts. I read something different then intended in Lucs post. What could REALLY tear us all a new arsehole is if the pig really does roast and all our wealth goes up in smoke as everyone goes bust. Just a worst case scenario -g- BWTFDIK -g- pearly