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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (44490)	3/24/2001 10:32:59 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, Thanks for the clarification. Your earlier note was not misleading in the least. You indicated that you believed chip ASP was the best leading indicator of semiconductor capital equipment sales, not that you had used it as a timing tool for investment decisions. I was not previously aware of your conflict of interest. The fact that you abstain from trading this sector due to your professional position as editor of a trade publication in my view gives your opinions greater weight and objectivity than those of most people on these threads. Since this is such a cyclical industry and timing is so very important for investment success, I shall make it a point to try to follow-up on the correlation you have observed and see whether it might lead to better profits. As we have observed, different people have expressed different opinions as to how to "identify the bottom". Cary Salsberg primarily uses a price to book value approach while most others seem to rely on a combination of BTB, bookings reaching a certain percentage decline from peak, bookings increasing for two consecutive months, and a variety of TA and consumer sentiment measures. Your Y/Y % change in ASP approach should be a worthy addition to the arsenal of indicators. But we must first be able to get reliable and timely data. I will first see what I can get from the Commerce Department before investigating proprietary sources. Thanks again for your feedback. Sam