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To: LemurHouse who wrote (505)3/25/2001 6:07:21 AM
From: soraramoa  Respond to of 656
 
Andrew,

Great post. I am certainly using it as reference for my investment decisions in the stock; at 11 IMNX is a screaming bay IMO. Anyway thank you very much for sharing your insight.

I guess you would make a great impact on this thread with some contributions in the future. At least that is what I would hope ...

Regards,
S

PS: I am not really sure whether Jacob deserved it ... <g>. After all, Jacob, thanks for asking the questions!



To: LemurHouse who wrote (505)3/27/2001 4:15:16 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 656
 
re: "Where is the poor quality of earnings?"

HighQualityEarnings = earnings that a company derives from the sale of their core product or service. These have to be earnings that they have a track record of consistently making in the past, with the expectation of being able to continue to do so into the indefinite future, by just doing what they've already proven they can do. The capital investments, R&D, etc. needed to produce the future profit stream, should be paid for out of cash flow (or past earnings). They should not be paid for with shareholder dilution or debt.

In this case, IMNX is not a bank. Therefore, earnings derived from interest on their cash is not QualityEarnings. Sort of like CSCO is not a mutual fund, so investment gains from their stock holdings in kinky go-go ConceptStocks are not QualityEarnings. In addition, as you say, IMNX is going to burn through that cash, so those earnings from interest are going to go away.

re: "It (IMNX) had an absurdly high P/E a few months ago. I'm not suggesting it will get there again, but it will certainly rise from the nadir that it is at now"

Certainly? There is nothing certain about it. Nothing. That should be a BigRedFlag, when you think anything is "certain" to happen. StockPicking is about predicting the future, and anyone's ability to do that is, at best, only approximate. I recall how the ThreadConsensus, a year ago, on so many of the HighTechs, was that they were "certain" to keep on going up. Everyone was certain that any 20-30% dips were buying opportunities. If we get a 1973-type recession in 2001-2002, and earnings are flat, then it is very reasonable to think IMNX might reach a PE (using trailing earnings) of 20: 20 X 0.28 = 5.6

JS@gloomanddoom.com