To: Little Joe who wrote (133380 ) 3/25/2001 12:03:38 AM From: Kevin Rose Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769667 I don't pretend to be an economist, but a lot of the economists I've seen on CNBC seem convinced that, when you look at forward indicators, inflation is not the current crisis. What Greenspan seems to fail to understand is that the economy has changed in the last 5 years. Now that 50% of the households in America invest in the stock market, there is a hard link between the performance of the stock market, consumer confidence, and the economy. The wealth effect has created that link. Now, when the stock market plummets, so does consumer confidence, which directly impacts consumer spending. Also, the people affected are the same ones making the corporate spending decisions; when they get hurt in the stock market, they get scared at work. They become naturally more cautious, which snowballs into corporate america with astonishing speed. Did you see how fast corporations cut their spending? Literally in a number of weeks. It snowballed through vendors to suppliers, and we're in a mess. How to kick people in the behind out of such a mindset? Back to the original cause; the stock market. Now, I'm not arguing that we need to blow the bubble back up; but we do need to find a floor. Greenspan, who started the downward ball rolling with his last 2-3 increases, had an opportunity to reverse his stupidity with a lousy 25 extra basis points. And he wussed out. Why? Because the stock market doesn't tell HIM what to do. Ego; pure and simple. He hids behind his trailing indicators (trailing because the chain of events I described moves so fast), and BOOM. No floor yet. Want to know my REAL opinion (yes! you say). I think that Greenspan thinks that the recent downturn is GOOD. He wanted the bubble burst so bad he was willing to bite it himself. That way, it can get back to 'normal'; i.e. under his control. He was REALLY pissed off that the stock market kept going up even when he told it to go down. Now, he is punished investors for the gall of defying him. Problem is, now there doesn't seem to be a bottom. People are REALLY hurt right now, and many are in denial about how hurt they are. Retirements have been hurt, college education funds, even basic savings. We'll be feeling the pain for a decade (which is why I don't believe the Fed 10 year growth numbers). Investors are psychologically scarred, and will sell into any significant rally for a long time to come. And you can thank your Uncle Al.