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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (44506)	3/25/2001 12:37:42 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 70976

Ian, Timeliness of data is just not as important for a leading indicator as for a coincident indicator in order to be a useful forecasting tool. This is not like a realtime stock chart. Katherine's perceptive comments suggest that ASP may best serve as a signpost for confirmation or divergence from other fundamental trends such as capex, e.g..: "I don't disagree with SEMI's statement that ASPs rose 12.5% from Sep. 99 to Sep. 2000. The problem was that capex rose 80+% in the same time frame. For comparison, ASP rose on the order of 15% in '92 and '93, and close to 25% in '94 and '95. The danger sign was the combination of record-breaking capex growth with relatively anemic ASP growth." She also noted: "ASPs stayed relatively flat during 2000, from which wiser heads than mine might have concluded that an inventory overhang was building." Sam