To: Captain Jack who wrote (90494 ) 3/27/2001 9:34:10 AM From: Elwood P. Dowd Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 97611 Merrill analyst Christine A. Callies by: skeptically 03/27/01 09:20 am EST Msg: 226137 of 226141 26 March 2001 Christine A. Callies Chief U.S. Investment Strategist Puru Sareen US Investment Strategy The Dust Begins to Settle—Recovery Prospects Still Encouraging Investment Highlights:• We doubt that the Fed has “blown it” with respect to equities. Last week’s temper tantrum in the equity markets illustrates that almost nothing that the FOMC did would have pleased investors. • The majority of our macro and micro barometers indicate that the prospects for equities continue to improve and the potential for broad leadership is expanding not contracting. • Although most groups have experienced some price erosion over the last several weeks, the growth-cyclical, soft landing leadership still appears to be intact. Further Fed rate cuts should reinforce this leadership shift. • The dreaded inventory correction in U.S. manufacturing appears to be proceeding swiftly, led by autos. This supports our view that margin pressures from this source should be short-lived. • Other negatives that might have interfered with the positive effects of Fed easing also appear to be dissipating (energy costs, consumer debt). • We, too, remain concerned about the level of household leverage, but detect little evidence of a major consumer retrenchment in this area. • The behavior of the long end of the Treasury curve over the last several weeks has been decidedly sluggish given the magnitude and speed of the equity market correction, and mortgage-related portfolio shifts. Risk-free assets appear to be overvalued. >Soft landing leadership survives The maintenance of outperformance during an interim correction can confirm new group leadership provided that valuations and the business/monetary cycle also support a sustainable move: consumer cyclicals (retailers—Best Buy (BBY, $38.80, C-1-1-9), BJs Wholesale (BJ, $44.08, C-1- 1-9), Dollar General (DG, $18.98, B-1-1-7), Ethan Allen (ETH, $32.20, B-1-1-7), Federated Dept. Stores (FD, $43.13, C-2-1-9)), energy—Amerada Hess (AHC, $74.78, B-1-1-7), BJ Services (BJS, $75.00, C-1-1-9), Weatherford Intl. (WFT, $53.28, C-1-1-9), and utilities—Exelon (EXC, $59.79, C-1-1-7) have managed to defend a significant portion of their gains from late 2000. Unless the fundamentals become uncompetitive (unlikely), these areas should share a leadership role for much of 2001. Resurrected leaders typically emerge on a piecemeal basis (technology—semis, cap equip, PCs, especially Compaq Computer (CPQ, $20.50, B-2-2-7) and Texas Instruments (TXN, $38.81, C-2-1-7). Old leaders that perform poorly (health care) are at risk of becoming persistent laggards—especially if Fed easing is aimed at reigniting profit growth. As profit growth begins to turn, investors tend to pursue areas with greater sensitivity to the business cycle, not the areas with the least. Safe havens also can become shaky havens if the relative multiples are extended, as appears to be the case for the health care sector (especially diversified pharmaceuticals, major pharmaceuticals).