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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (44537)	3/26/2001 1:17:04 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

The adjusted monetary base, the monetary measurement most controlled by the fed according to Larry Kudlow,(and nearly every other economist for that matter), has grown at the stupendous annual rate of 1.6% since mid January. The fed is way too tight still. To grow supply at this anemic rate, while keeping real rates sky high, is a recipe for disaster. I would be wildly bullish if not for the fed's obvious intent here being very different than it was in the fall of 98. I think we will be doing better, but I just don't see a sustained explosion w/o the fed's help. I think what is evolving here is a strong similarity to the early 90's. The fed eased over a long time, finally getting rates way down. they took so long to do it that they then kept them down for years, because the economy never picked up much momentum, and this eventually led to the tremendous 94-97 market, prior to the 98-99 bubble.