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To: bumboo who wrote (85293)	3/25/2001 11:59:25 PM
From: sammaster	Respond to of 436258

think of all bear market bounces as excellent put opportunities...at least while we are overvalued with worsening fundamentals..

To: bumboo who wrote (85293)	3/26/2001 12:42:07 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 436258

re: WTF is up with the semi equipment and memory stocks? everyone remembers how, from the 1998 low to the 2000 top, all the semi-equips were 10-baggers. AMAT went from 11 to 115, and the rest of the group moved in tandem. No one wants to be on the sidelines for the next rocket up. There is fear out there, but, for the moment, the greed is stronger. Everyone is "looking over the valley", ignoring how wide and deep the valley might be, and greedily looking at the mountains beyond. The semi-equips tend to move in huge stair-steps. That is, on downtrends, they waterfall down abruptly, then stay in a horizontal range for a few months, then take another sickening plunge to new lows. Uptrends are the reverse (but more pleasant for investors). IMO, we are in one of those plateaus, and the semi-equips will, at some point, all fail support at the same time, probably on the same day. Until that happens, we will have a lot of hopeful investors buying in, thinking the bottom is in. IMO, the only way the bottom is in for semi-equips, is if end-consumer demand for chips has already bottomed, and that doesn't look likely to me. AMAT, or, better yet, NVLS, look like good shorts here.