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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (85360)	3/26/2001 10:02:56 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 436258

MARKET EARNINGS We believe the poor performance of the market last week was due primarily to the realization by investors that the much hoped for recovery side of the expected V pattern in the economy and earnings would not begin in 3Q01 as many investors and company managements had been expecting. It is now clear that S&P500 earnings will be down, on a year-over-year basis, for at least the first three quarters of 2001. Current estimates are that earnings growth will be down 7.2% for 1Q01, down 5.2% for 2Q01, and up 2.7% for 3Q01. There is no doubt that, by the 3Q01 reporting season in October, the 2.7% gain will have been cut to a sizeable decline. There is now no question that the profits recession will be at least three quarters long. Since the beginning of March, the earnings growth estimates for 1Q01 and 2Q01 have continued to come down at the rate of about a full percentage point a week. For 3Q01 and 4Q01, the decline was almost at a full percentage point, but the rate has accelerated from earlier in the year. The market clearly will turn up before the economy and earnings turn up, usually about two quarters ahead. That means if the recovery were going to come in 3Q01, the market should have turned up in 1Q01, which has not been the case, so the market appears to be confirming that the upturn will not be in 3Q01. Now that the market has apparently thrown in the towel on a 3Q01 earnings recovery, the issue is whether the upturn will come in 4Q01. About all one can do in this environment is, as time goes on, eliminate which quarters the upturn will not be in. Over the next few months it should emerge whether earnings will bottom in 3Q01 and turn up in 4Q01, or whether the conclusion will be that it will be 1Q02 or later. The timing and depth of the earnings bottom will depend heavily on what happens in the technology sector. The estimates are now clearly in free fall for all four quarters of 2001 for the S&P500 tech sector earnings. The rate of decline has decelerated slightly for 1Q01 and 2Q01, but could reaccelerate as we move into the peak weeks for pre-announcements. More worrisome is the acceleration in the last two weeks in 4Q01 downward revisions in tech earnings. Down now to an expected increase of only 5% in 4Q01, it seems highly likely that the final numbers will show a decline in year-over-year earnings. In addition, the 3Q01 earnings for the basic materials and capital goods sectors have been undergoing substantive downward revisions over the last few weeks. But the 2Q01 and 3Q01 estimates for the consumer cyclicals and consumer staples sectors have stabilized in recent weeks. A key issue will be to see if that continues or whether the slashing resumes in those sectors. Meanwhile, the negative pre-announcements for 1Q01 have continued to run well ahead of the record setting pace in 4Q00, particularly in the technology sector. Earnings for the S&P500 in 1Q01 are likely to be down 7% to 9%, depending on how bad the pre-announcements get over this week and the next two. For the tech sector the final results are likely to show a decline of 30% to 34%. www1.firstcall.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (85360)	3/26/2001 10:11:18 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

got a fake capitulation PM from a clown this morn.. not sure what type of indicator that is... desperation stage? -g-

To: AllansAlias who wrote (85360)	3/26/2001 11:43:02 AM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 436258

It has only happened three times in the last hundred years, all periods when things were much more seriously awry than they are today. What a bunch of crap this is. Why is it so painfully obvious to many on this thread what's happening while it seems the rest of the world is in complete denial? We were all skeptical of first the soft landing and then the second half recovery. Are we really supposed to believe that "things were much more seriously awry than they are today" because some Wall Street Clown said so? I'm sure a little digging on this Applegate Clown would show him first calling for a fed engineered soft landing, then when that didn't happen for a 2nd half recovery. Why is it these Clowns can keep any form credibility at all given what's happened the past year?