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To: NOW who wrote (85541)	3/26/2001 3:40:09 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

correct about the t-bonds. note that under the radar of most, another emerging markets crisis has begun, involving Argentina and Brazil. the Brazilian CB has been forced to RAISE rates in an attempt to defend the faltering real, and Argentina's dollar bond yields are exploding. re. M3 and FF rate, i'd have to study the historical record to give you a definitive answer. note however that in both deflationary supercycle bears over the past 100 years (US 1930, Japan 1990) the contraction in the monetary aggregates didn't start right away. since the WS bubble machinery (watch GSE activity...) is in crisis reflation mode, we see this huge surge in the monetary aggregates lately...lenghtening the life of existing malinvestments, and sending the consumer on a last hurrah shopping spree with mortgage refi money (already spent, as far as i can tell).