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To: LLCF who wrote (85563)	3/26/2001 11:02:46 PM
From: lisalisalisa	Respond to of 436258

< but it is a six-sigma event you are trying to forcast... > < but it is a six-sigma event you are trying to forecast. > Well I said it more 'tongue in cheek', I suppose that certain economic environments would be enabling for a BK. . In an environment like this a BK is obviously much more likely, especially given the amount of excess and speculation we have seen in prior years. I was wrong in hindsight to say it is a six-sigma event, which only would be true if trading took place in a vacuum, and the chance for a BK were truly random and not linked to economic circumstances, which are observable. It is still a tough thing to forecast exactly, down to the day, which Heniz was trying to do. I would not put it past him though<g>