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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73337)	3/26/2001 9:20:22 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

How many here think this bear can end with only a few billion of net public mutual fund redemptions? Something for former bears now turning bullish to think about.>>>>> George, the other sentiment indicator i am watching also that doesn't seem to wanna give is the rydex otc long/short ratio, at the top the ratio was about 98% bullish, it is now 93% bullish only because the decrease in bull fund, none of the rydex speculators still wanna short nasdaq after a 60% drop, this seems like a hallucination, unbelievable. while put buying has increased to levels that were bottoming areas during the bull market, rydex is lagging a bit. during the bull market we had the wall of worry, during the bear market you have the opposite the wall (or slope) of hope, with all the indexes below the 200 dma after a super bull run, it makes sense to give the trend of the last year the benefit of the doubt, nobody knows where the economy is going in the next several quarters and we are coming off a period of excessive optimism. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[de][pb50!b200!a9700][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9] for months i've been posting these horizontal line charts showing rallies into resistance, did we just do another one?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73337)	3/26/2001 9:27:14 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

George- If one accepts that we were in a bubble....then, in my mind....the next step is to define..."How big a bubble was it?".....The answer to that is: The biggest in the history of the world. Now, perhaps there is a possibility that this can end quickly, fairly easily, etc....but if history is any guide.....we still have a long way to go..... I am extremely open to any arguments as to WHY it will be any different this time (vs. past bubbles)....just haven't heard a lot of good ones...so, yes, I think it likely will take a lot more redemptions... One last point: Many folks are saying: Look, the major mags all have a bear on the cover...therefore, look for a contrarian rally......maybe the REAL contrarian play here is...that all those articles are assuming this is a normal bear market......when the real Contrarian answer is that this will last longer, and deeper than what these mags currently think....hence, the contrarian indicator STILL works....just not the way everyone thinks....