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To: chic_hearne who wrote (42416)3/27/2001 6:34:08 AM
From: High-Tech East  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
 
chic ... I am giving almost exclusive attention to the net-long or net short position of the commercials because it is and has been so extreme ... although I do believe in looking at other indicators as well for confirmation before establishing a position in futures or index options.

Looking at the weekly S&P chart for this cycle, the commercials established a continually deeper net-short position by late April, 2000 and by early August the trend of the S&P had turned sharply down. I bought my first put in late July and have continued buying, selling and rolling them since then.

Fortunately, my overall gains from puts have much more than made up for the significant decline in the value of my Abiomed position. It has been a good, but unintentional hedge in that regard as I patiently wait for the announcement of the first successful total artificial heart implant.

Ken Wilson