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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (3593)	3/27/2001 10:26:41 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Consumer confidence was up 7.8 points for the first time in 6 months, but stocks are rallying on this even though it implies further near-term intrameeting rate cuts are not likely. This is especially true after hearing Fed Gov Pools's comment today in Prague that the slowdown will be over by the summer, and that the mood is worse than conditions. It looks like traders want to look at the positives and believe this line of thought and hence visibility is coming back to corporate sales and earnings, and the market is already trying to peer over the mountain to the easier Q4 2000 comparable numbers. This is not necessarily what will play out but it appears to be how the stock market is viewing things. It was actually a classic set up to have selling on the Fed's 3rd rate cut of 50% basis points, Historically when you get 3 consecutive moves in either direction by the FED, the stock market follows that lead. whether it's up or down. Selling this 3rd rate cut last tuesday may prove to be a bad trading tactic for all except those who could square up by 3:30 on thursday of last week, .....There is still conjecture in this thesis until the market tells us what's right, but this is what I'm seeing currently. The SPX has just made a new high for the rally since Last Thursday afternoon's low. It will need to get above 1175 and close there for a day or two to confirm this. John