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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (73370)	3/27/2001 11:13:36 AM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

Nobody is really worried that a recession could come and cause high unemployment. When people are having trouble replacing a lost job, the sentiment numbers will change. The consumer confidence number is not really a viable foward looking indicator , IMO, because people really don't know where the economy is going. I haven't seen people actually changing the patterns based on what has been happening in the markets. For the most part, people don't change unless forced to do so. IMO, shorts and longs will need precise entry points for their trades, at these levels, and should not get greedy about taking profits.

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (73370)	3/27/2001 11:24:30 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stephen, I wonder whether todays reaction is just a trading move by the hedge funds. They kept shorting on the breakdown of the diamond... and the reason CNBC reported was that they did it because it kept working. Perhaps now there's an uptrend/counter trend they feel they can squeeze shorts and will play that side till it no longer works ??. Thats all I can think of frankly .... Course ... that also means that the next move down could be just as dramatic ...... but all I can do is guess quite frankly. After 2 days of distribution in the NASD, the trin today is very strong. Still ... early days ... Regards Stephen

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (73370)	3/28/2001 1:35:36 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Positive Market Reaction to Improved Consumer Confidence: Since the fall of '94, there have been 7 instances where the Market was either negative going into the end of a quarter on a YTD basis, or went YTD negative early in the new quarter. In 6 of these cases, the Market rallied into quarter's end, then sold off. # 7 was essentially neutral. Money Mgt firms, Brokerage firms and Mutual Fund companies have a common interest in making those YTD #s on quarterly statements look as good as possible. Through news management and incremental buying of shares of companies they already own, they are pumping up share prices for the quarterly statements. If prices had stayed at their lows of last week, the YTD losses would have been some of the worst of the past 10 years.