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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (10154)	3/28/2001 8:29:12 AM
From: Poet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Hi my pit bull friend, I just read your post in which you lay out your thoughts about the market over the next few weeks, and must say I'm thinking (and positioned) along the same lines. The Dow made about a 45% retrace from last Thursday's lows in only three days. The NDX got 1975 resistance and stalled yesterday, which prompted me to buy OEX and QQQ puts. I'd posted on the CIW thread a few days ago that I thought Monday and Tuesday would be up with decreasing volatility and that the end of this week would see a retest of recent lows. I think you're onto something in thinking about the debacle caused by employee stock options, as well as other tax selling. What did you do with your OEX puts? Did you sell some last week? The range has been outrageous. I bought the same strike (April 540 puts) at $2.50 yesterday that I had sold last Thursday at $15.50.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (10154)	3/28/2001 2:22:56 PM
From: hobo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

I disagree, the posting of raw data that can be found by anyone who is interested is a waste of bandwidth without some analysis of how it is used. I am still in the Internet wilds not knowing when I will get a stable and more permanent connection so I can't stay long. I really do not understand the objective of your post. If it is that you do not want me to post "raw" information so as to not to waste bandwith. Then fine. As for expressing an opinion I am actually adamant to do so since it can be misinterpreted... From time to time I have expressed some opinions and what I have done and clearly explain that it is just that my opinion. I think the market has further downside. Do you want to trade on this information? Probably not. No I do not trade on exclusively "someone else's opinion", nor I have ever said or implied the same for others. How about if I say the reason I feel this way is there will be massive fund redemptions for tax selling reasons and the Naz techs will be brutalized because of the employee options exercised and the stock held instead of sold and the holders owe "alternative minimum tax" and their stock is now worth less than the taxes they owe. Further, we are seeing the end of quarter bounce through the end of March and the tax selling begins in April. Agree or disagree, you now know how I formed my opinion. While your scenario is quite posssible, you or anybody else's opinion is a mere speculation as for the reasons why the selling continues. The point is that the selling will continue, for how long...? frankly I do not know, The market will tell us that. My agreeing or disagreeing is irrelevant since what the market does is the ultimate reality. We all atempt to figure out WHERE it is going, I attempt to find a concensus as to the reasons why, in order to attempt to figure out the direction of the market. I have no interest in proving my point is "right". I do not know what else to tell you, if it makes you happy that I do not "waste bandwith" posting the CBOE data, fine, I will not post it again, I receive it anyway, so it does not change anything for me. Good trading to you.