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To: Diamond Jim who wrote (7606)	3/27/2001 2:35:22 PM
From: contquistodor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17683

Speaking of being bearishly wrong, what ever happen to Michael Metz, he was wrong from 3500 all the way up, he still around.

To: Diamond Jim who wrote (7606)	3/27/2001 7:16:31 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 17683

Fleck was bullish on the US at the bottom in 1982, and only turned bearish in 1995. His problem is that he recognizes a bubble a bit earlier than the ignorati. Just like he recognized Intel's demise long before the rest of the herd figured it out. It's funny how it took 4 years of no-growth before the herd figured out Intel wasn't growing. Fleck's record is horrible Really? The returns I have seen from his hedge fund are solid. What numbers do you have? Tom

To: Diamond Jim who wrote (7606)	3/28/2001 12:34:06 AM
From: Mark Marcellus	Respond to of 17683

Mark, are you aware of just how low the market was when Fleck started his bear call? are you aware of Fleck's bear call on Japan's market, back when it rocketed? Taking them in reverse order, I'm not aware of how low the Japanese market was when he made his bear call, but I find it hard to believe that it was any lower than it is now. As for the U.S., I thought that Fleck was wrong when he turned bearish in 1995. Now I think he was only early, and I'm becoming less sure even of that. But if he was wrong, then we're pretty close to a bottom right now. And if we're close to a bottom, then 15% growers trade at a 30 PE when they are at the very bottom of their range instead of when they are at the very top. You can believe or disbelieve Fleck's analysis, but he makes good arguments which deserve careful consideration, and which cannot be dismissed out of hand. If you believe we've entered a new era where 30 PE's are "cheap", by all means go for it. If you're right, you'll trounce the returns on my money markets. But be sure you know why you believe what you believe, because if you're wrong you're headed for disaster.