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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (44607)	3/27/2001 2:14:49 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

July? Wow, you are a pessimist. May I ask why your view is so grim? 18 months from the peak sounds reasonable, but I beat all bears on this board. I'd like to see AMAT report a 1.2 Billion quarter before I load up. The only reason the sox and this sector is up has to be end of quarter window dressing. They can't own AMCC and JDSU but the can own a stock that's actually up this quarter. It's the only explaination I can come up with because this can't no way no how be a bottom.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (44607)	3/27/2001 5:12:02 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, I don't see a July bottom as all that grim. Rather it would represent a garden variety cycle. Seasonal factors would tend to prevent bookings from bottoming before July. If OTOH the bottom was in fact reached in December 2000, it would be one of the shortest downcycles on record. Bookings are still at quite high levels relative to other troughs. And valuations (P/S, P/B) are quite high as well. Considering the state of the economy and end user demand for cell phones, PCs, and the like, I think a July trough would be quite an optimistic scenario. But you know this industry far better than I. What is your likeliest (as opposed to rosiest) scenario? Sam