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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Howe who wrote (56887)	3/27/2001 6:07:29 PM
From: dybdahl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Hi, Dave. Yes, it is true, that I have become more anti-old-platform-Microsoft than before. I really don't see much future in Windows and Office as they are now, and as Windows 2000 gets more widely deployed, I see more and more problems with it. But - somehow it seems that Microsoft agrees with me... because they introduced this ".net" thing. Many of the things said by Microsoft about .net, is something I agree with. Microsoft would face some problems with multiple processor platforms (P4, AMD Hammer, IA64), if they didn't solve it with .net technologies like MSIL, CLI etc., and .net is a technology, where I believe that Microsoft can provide more value for the money than current technologies. Today I was host at a meeting for programmers, where I had invited Microsoft Denmark to talk about .net technology. I don't know how it will look like when it's finished (very few know that), but on paper, it seems that Microsoft takes some VERY important steps right now, and that these steps are in the right direction, seen from a technical point of view. Another step, that is absolutely not welcome over here, is the licensing programs with Office XP and Windows XP with activation keys. Here, I must defend Microsoft. Having bought lots of software on the internet, delivered via the internet, I see activation keys as the only viable long-term solution for easy deployment of Microsoft products, if Microsoft is to get money from their products. So in other words, I'm very negative about old Microsoft technologies, and I see a lot of possibilities in new Microsoft technologies. Some things that annoy me, though, is that .net won't be there until late this year or next year, and that I'm not sure how good or fast the initial release will be. Lars.

To: David Howe who wrote (56887)	3/27/2001 6:48:23 PM
From: dybdahl	Respond to of 74651

Programmer survey: A part of my view on software comes from my board membership of a non-profit Borland Delphi programmer's association (http://www.dapug.dk/). We are in the progress of doing a member survey, and I was planning to publish the results later, but will post the current results now as a reply to your post: Responses: 46% of all members. All other percentages are percentage of responses. Self-employed: 33% Uses some kind of Windows: 100% Uses Borland Delphi: 100% Manager at some level: 38% Responsible for buying programming services: 42% CEO of primary workplace (not self-employed): 26% Doing multi-language/internationalized software: 39% Using Linux: 23% Administering Linux: 7% Interested in Linux: 46% Member of a Linux User Group: 11% Doing database apps: 92% Doing office apps: 71% Using Microsoft ASP: 16% Using PHP: 11% Windows 95 used for developers: 59% (!) Windows 98 used for developers: 83% Windows Me used for developers: 11% Windows NT4 used for developers: 82% Windows 2000 used for developers: 66% Produces software for Windows 3.x: 16% (!!!!!) Produces software for Windows 95/98/Me: 85% Produces software for Windows NT 4: 80% Produces software for Windows 2000: 75% Produces software for Windows CE: 7% Produces software for DOS: 4% (mostly data acquisition) Produces software for Linux: 4% Uses Microsoft SQL Server: 40% (mostly version 7, only 9% use SQL2000) Uses Oracle: 23% (mostly version 8) Uses Interbase: 27% (mostly version 6) Uses DB2: 2% Uses Informix: 0% Uses Sybase: 11% Uses MySQL: 7% These figures are in no way representative of any market or region, but are still very interesting. Especially the Windows 3.x figures wondered me very much, and I have asked some of the respondents why they produce 16-bit software. They do that, because they target schools and public administration, who still use Windows 3.x on desktops. It's that simple. The survey isn't finished yet - it's our goal to come above 70% responses, and would like to go as close to 100% as possible (it's not anonymous, so we know exactly who hasn't responded). And then we will probably dig into the numbers to get better explanations. I hope these figures will make you see, that the world is not all about the newest MSFT technologies. In fact, only few people use the newest MSFT technologies. There is no point in discussing Linux in this forum in order to promote something. Most of the time on this list I spend reading, and try to keep my posts on technical issues. I'm an extremely careful investor. I have seen too many people not making money on investing, or making less money than if they would hand over their money to somebody with more knowledge. I have made some right judgements in my time, and I would probably put money into MSFT stocks if they would start to rise because of a .net success (or something similar). But as long as Office and Windows is driving the business, I don't believe in healthy growth. Lars.