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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (11997)	3/27/2001 7:19:36 PM
From: bonnuss_in_austin	Respond to of 13572

When the consumer loses the job, fast is the domino fall. Around here, people are flat-out scared. (Donnie, I know you'll disagree with this, but that might be because you run/work in slightly different crowds than me). Had a discussion with a boomer-age long-term employee for big conglom client this afternoon ... many there are putting homes/condos on market ASAP because future ... tech ... is so very uncertain. We discussed the fact that here in the quite precisely configured Central Texas area, everyone since the early 80s tech boom began here now has the same skill sets. I would guess that there are probably 50,000 degreed electrical engineers working in Austin at this time. For example. Highly specialized in all sorts of niche tech products. When the DELLs of the world ... and the MOTs ... and the IBMs ... and the AMDs ... and the Samsungs ... and the Siemens .. and the AMAT's ... revs/growth pictures are cut in half, where are these people going to work? They'll have to leave Austin. To go WHERE? Back to San Jose? Or Rochester? Or Santa Clara? Or Schaumburg? Or 'branch out' to new areas such as the Research Triangle in NC. Or Rte 128/Boston. You see, the thing is, there are going be no other jobs as tech globally 'downsizes.' DELL is not going to need 20,000 employees in Central Texas as growth diminishes each quarter. Who's going to buy the houses with the mortgages that the downsized tech specialists can't make? Pay rent in the $1300/month luxury apartment complexes ... some still under construction ... bordering One Dell Way @ RR1325? Rose-color glasses are a fine thing when people are confident that they will be able to support themselves for the rest of their lives. They become a real detriment when things change. I view the technology bubble we've all witnessed and experienced as impacting millions of people in the U.S. and Canada in paradigm shift fashion. (Sorry so egocentric ... I don't have any or much direct experience studying what Asia Pacific regions, etc to comment, except to expect U.S. multinationals to have one hell of a negative impact there as well ... huge plants in Singapore 'downsizing' etc...) On that cheerful note, Mish -- check out RIMM again -- damnit. Were we right or what? LOL. bia