Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRUE_TRUTH who wrote (89334)	3/27/2001 9:06:26 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Truth ? re: ["So,guess if I have a point it is that longer term, the NG equities look undervalued and as soon as 1st quarter earnings for techs hit, or this rally hits a point where traders take profits in techs and dow stocks, they will probably come back for a look when 1st Q NG earnings come out and when everyone realizes there never was much of a shoulder. It may take a few more weeks, but something to think about. Think we will see another rally on the NG equities in the next few weeks'} Truth; what RALLY in tech stocks ? The NAZ has fallen 1600 points and only bounced less than 100 points off the bottom in the last 6 mos ? There has been no rally in tech. Also; we allready have had our topping rally in Nat Gas stocks - it peaked at the end of December into the "Too Perfect California-Crisis Storm" (THAT was the TRUE contrarian play - selling & exiting the "too" perfect storm and expections) and we recently had a little pop off of the Barrett takeout news - which was another profit taking exit opp. All one needs to do to know where we are in the E&P cycle is to look at the perennial Street Fav's - APA & APC. They are so far off their highs & face lower 2002 eps/cfps and commodity price assumptions; that the odds of them setting "significant" new highs - pales when compared to what Tech will offer off its bottom that it is forming here. In all due respect; I think you've got it completely backwards. The rotation will be OUT of Oil and back INTO Tech - not the other way around. Sure; we can bounce off OSX 115 - but, so what. That's - "Been there & done that" territory and has been so for 12 mos. There is only ONE reason to stay in OSX, or E&P stocks here on a portfolio weighted basis & imho; that is if you see them going to SIGNIFICANT new highs - ie: $90 APA/APC, or $65 EOG in the E&P's, or OSX 175ish. I'd be willing to bet most anything & everything that $90 APA/APC, or $65 EOG will not be seen & I think the simultaneous bottoming of Tech into the maturation of the Oilpatch cycle - is going to drain too much momenteum money out of the Oilpatch to make OSX 175ish all too probable either - especially given the grossly underestimated sentiment of those Institutional Managers who got so badly burned on the 97-98 cycle collapse. ... as in all things; we shall just have to wait & see. The significant difference between the sentiment on these Oil threads; is this thread learned it's lessons from prior cycles well & is NOT repeating the same mistakes made then and is trading this sector as a CYCLICAL sector and not growth stocks. We are trading the Traders (the Street) as much as the fundamentals as the cycle matures & that is a prerequisite for survival AND profit retention. We are also continually "transitioning" our thinking - as the cycle itself goes thru transitions. We are moving from weighting the fundamentals - to weighting the technicals. At the bottom - we entered before the commodity markets reflected the improving fundamentals and now at the top - we will hopefully be exiting before they begin to reflect the declinging fundamentals as well. - THIS IS A KEY CONCEPT PEOPLE ! - the fundamentals do NOT matter at the bottom, or the top. You buy terrible fundies at the bottom & sell great ones at the top... do that & you'll be a true contrarian who not only makes money; but keeps it too ! The most misunderstood point in longterm investing & trading cyclical sectors - is that it's a fools game to try to be the last man standing at THE TOP; as that top is often a very brief & fleeting moment in time and by far the mass majority fail for months & months to realize it for what it was... THE TOP. Untill proven otherwise; I think we can look back & wave at the end of Aug/first of Sept highs for the OSX and the last week of December for the E&P TOP ... The closer we get to the top; as well as the further we get away from it; the quicker that playing the trading range, or the buy the dip game, losses it's risk vs reward luster - think about that... In cyclicals - walking away with a large percentage of profits via having a contrarian EXIT strategy that is as out front of the pack - as your intitial contrarian entry was; is paramount. Also; remember that you will make just as much money & probably even make it faster; on the downside of the cycle - as on the upside & the reason you will; is the Pom-Pom squad will still be buying dips & thinking "Trading Range" - long, long after the cycle has allready peaked. Whodathunkit ? Good Luck