Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Daytrading Canadian stocks in Realtime -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew who wrote (48725)	3/28/2001 2:23:31 AM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62347

12-15 $CAN written all over this stock. MARKET UNDERPERFORM Nortel Networks (NT : TSE : $26.30 / NT : NYSE : US$16.76 : Issued 3.1B f.d.) HIGHLIGHTS * Nortel warns again and continues to disappoint. Still an UNDERWEIGHT Recommendation: MARKET UNDERPERFORM 12-month target price: $19.09 52-week range: $124.50-23.61 Shares O/S: f.d. 3.1B Dividend: $0.117 Yield: $0.44 Weekly trading vol.: 75.2M Market capitalization: $81.5B Sector: Industrial Products Web site address: www.nortelnetworks.com Introduction Nortel again warned investors with an announcement after the market close on March 27, in which management changed its previous guidance for Q1 EPS before goodwill amortization of a loss of $0.04 per share to a loss of $0.10-0.12 per share. Full-year guidance had previously on February 15) been for a 15% gain in revenues and a 10% gain in EPS before goodwill amortization. Now NT is declining to offer any guidance for full-year 2001 EPS. NT stock was trading in after-hours at US$14.60 or about C$22.63. Comment NT has disappointed investors in a serious way for the third time in five months. As recently as February 15, the company restated its guidance for Q1 and now is predicting a more significant loss for that quarter while now making no projections for full year EPS. For this, we believe the company's shares will continue to remain in the penalty box for some time. Valuation As the statistics box indicates above, we continue to recommend the stock as a MARKET UNDERPERFORM but have maintained the 12-month target of C$19.09, which we used in our recent March 2001 Portfolio Strategy report. We now arrive at this target by using a P/E multiple of 24.6 times on our new blended 2001/2002 EPS estimate of US$0.49 - down from our previous estimate of US$0.65. It should be recognized that with no earnings guidance from management for the balance of this year, our EPS estimates at this stage are very tentative. We have calculated the 24.6 projected P/E multiple by taking a 1.2 PEG ratio (this compares to the 11-year average of 1.1 times) and applying it to a new downwards revised three-year EPS growth rate of just over 20%. The EPS growth rate assumes a decline of 46% this year, a recovery of 88% in 2002, and a gain of 20% in 2003. Clearly, our target is still below March 27 after-hours trading levels of around C$22.63. The corollary is that we would need to see a price reasonably below that level to justify buying it. As advised in the previous Strategy Note on February 16, our NT position was sold out of our Model Portfolio at that time (at $30.70). This left our Model Portfolio at a zero weighting in the technology sector (we also sold ATI Technologies in January). We do think that the Technology sector will likely sustain its short-term rally over the next few weeks. However, those stocks that peaked latest or held up longer (such as the Nortels and Celesticas) will be the last to join the short-term party. Nevertheless, we continue to be comforted that the Model Portfolio continues to perform relatively well. As at the March 27 close, it is showing a year-to-date marginal loss of 0.6% compared to a year-to-date loss of 12.9% for the TSE 300 Total Return Index.

To: Andrew who wrote (48725)	3/28/2001 2:41:10 AM
From: Ward Nicholson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62347

Andrew, I believe professional traders should trade in the direction of the overiding trend, not against it. I think it depends on your time frame. I've made a bundle on retracement rallies over the past 12 months. The NAZ has been fabulous to trade on a technical basis. If you map out your support and resistance levels, it makes no difference which side you prefer to play...the fact is that there's been enough volatility to profit from. Perhaps you meant professional investors? WN

To: Andrew who wrote (48725)	3/28/2001 8:22:20 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 62347

Yes but there are those that post that they are long this that or the other and there are a lot of Sheep that lurk here and follow the leader. <<However, as the Chief has stated many time "Who cares... it is immaterial whether the trend is up or down">> That is sheep talk. I believe professional traders should trade in the direction of the overiding trend, not against it. What "you believe" or "I" believe is irrelevant. We all take or chances and we all make our own decisions. I will pay dearly for the RIMM hold overnight, but that was my decision. One of the reasons I no longer post regularily on SI is that during the process of expressing an opinion, many have decided to redicule rather than accept it is only an opinion. SI has degraded to a place where an opinion is scoffed at, ridiculed and a place where "he who speaks the loudest" rules. Daytrading stocks for pennies or quarters or dollars are regularily ridiculed by board participants as "illogical or stupid". I am from the old school, a school that dictates that if you are not contributing the persons account, you have nothing to say about his/her trading practices. If people want help, you give it to them, in the hopes that your help is "truly help", but ultimately it is only "your opinion"..which may or may not turn out to be correct. I believe professional traders should trade in the direction of the overiding trend, not against it. That assumes that all people that trade, have cash accts seperate from their RRSP's or 401K's. Many do not, therefore they must look for Upticks in a down market and play those mini-uptrends. Those of us that have money that is not part of our RRSP's can do both. Some are better than others....certtainly when it comes to shorters, I have to be ranked in the bottom third. I have made money in this downturn by playing the small upticks between the major downturns. I enjoy listening to people that criticize others for playing a specific direction like they contributed to that persons bank account. Then stating TA comments like H&S, inverse H&S, and pennants/flags. All of these formations require upticks in the market as well as downticks. So to state that "professional traders" should trade the overriding trend as a rule is IMHO self-serving"...because it assumes the overriding trend is the "only way to play this market". Yes but there are those that post that they are long this that or the other and there are a lot of Sheep that lurk here and follow the leader. Anyone that follows anyone else is either unable to make their own decisions or should not be in this market...or any other. I trade the way I do, just as you trade the way you do. It is not he who last longest wins, it is he who makes the right decisions at the right time wins. When someone states that they are going long or short on this or any other thread, it is to let others know what he/she is doing. It is neither right or wrong...it is something they have done..it is not something they are thinking of doing. Sheep: This thread was very successful for a number of years, because no one berrated or ridiculed "choice". Over the last 6-8 months it has become a place where its either "do it my way or you are a bonehead". If ti was done as a "friendly dig" that would be more than acceptable..but many who now do not post to this or other threads on SI are watching the few people that remain fighting for "guru status" a status that was not pursued on this thread before. For those that insist I was attempting to appoint myself as a guru over the last few years, you are wrong.....like any stock picker if you get on a role...you can garner a following...as soon as you are wrong for any length of time...you are a has been. I have been on both sides of the fence...not thru choice. but because of threads like the ones I started here on SI. In the end Guru status or as explained by you and others "sheep followers" do not contribute to ones account unless you pre-position yourself in the stock first...which is "front running". I can take pride in the fact that I never did it, nor will I ever, realtime was realtime. the Chief